Thursday Brief

In the media nowadays, the main news is about the takeover of Afghanistan by the militant group Taliban.The biggest surprise was that the last  govt of Afghanistan, without any fight back surrendered to Taliban militant forces, and the President fled the country and as per latest report he has taken shelter in UAE.The world is divided over whether to recognise the new Taliban govt or not. Few Islamic countries have given their recognition to this new regime, but most of the countries including India have not recognised the new regime and waiting for the further development. In our country there are few Islamic organisation and political leaders who have hailed the takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban. As per Indian govt Taliban is banned militant organisation, who have been banned by United Nations and this move have been endorsed by majority of countries in the world. Indian govt is considering this as anti national activity and even filed a sedition charges against a MP. Now full world is watching over the further development regarding formation of new regime and its structure and what will the basis of operation of this regime.

As per the media reports there are many developments happening in Afghanistan, in which various leaders are participating  and discussing about the formation of govt.

Some of development are dedscribed below—

{After rolling effortlessly to power, the Taliban face the hardtask of give-and-take politics, and appear to be in negotiations to accommodate several interests within the factions and tribes, and in the ecosystem that helped and supported them — Pakistan’s security establishment is a main part of this — and even their enemies.

Going by the signals emerging from the huddles in Kabul and Doha, where high-ranking Taliban leaders camped for nearly a decade for the talks with the US, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the number two in the organisation and in-charge of its political wing, is likely to head the new government.

The supreme leader, or Amir ul Momineen, Maulvi Haibatullah Akhundzada, may not take part in government directly. There was talk during the Doha discussions about an Iranian-style Supreme Leader, and if that post is created in the new Afghan set up.

 

In 2010, Baradar was detained by the ISI as he had begun to respond to overtures for peace talks from then President Hamid Karzai.He was anything but Pakistan’s man, and through his years in office and until months ago, was vocal about the role of the Pakistan military in the conflict.

Baradar spent eight years in incarceration, and was released only when the Trump Administration launched talks with the Taliban in 2018. He headed the nine-member Taliban team that negotiated with US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad — they were the two signatories to the Doha Agreement last year, by which the US agreed to withdraw its troops on condition that the Taliban would not shelter al-Qaeda or ISIS, and would hold negotiations with other Afghans to arrive at a political settlement to end the war.

It is unclear if Baradar has now made his peace with Pakistan, which hand-held the Taliban through the talks. But if he becomes the head of the new government, he is likely to be more independent minded than the Pakistani security establishment — the Army and ISI — would like.

 

Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob, operational head of the military wing of the Taliban, would likely be an important figure in the new regime. He did not pitch himself hard when the leader of the Taliban was being chosen in 2016; he may now claim a place in the new set-up.

It is unclear if Sirajuddin Haqqani will emerge from the shadows to become an official part of the new regime, but he will remain a critical factor in the determining its decisions and actions. He inherited the leadership of the Haqqani network from his father Jalaluddin, has been a designated terrorist under UNSC resolution  since 2007, and carries a US reward of $ 5 million on his head.

The Haqqani network is a militant entity allied with the Taliban but is distinct from it, and is closest of all the groups within Taliban to Pakistan’s ISI. It has found permanent shelter in Pakistan’s North Waziristan, and has strong links with al-Qaeda.

 

Other important people of the  group–Two members of the Taliban have had a high profile during the Doha talks: Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, who ran the political office of the Taliban in Doha since 2012, and Zabiullah Mujahid, the well known chief spokesman who first revealed his face only on Tuesday in Kabul.

Then there is the youngest Haqqani brother, Anas, who has been the public face of the Haqqani network. He led a Taliban delegation on Wednesday in a meeting with former President Karzai and members of the deposed Ashraf Ghani government for what seemed to be negotiations about government formation. Also present were Abdullah Abdullah, who led the High Peace Council of in the previous government, and former mujahideen leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Iran’s outreach to the Taliban in recent months, and its covert support to the Taliban fightback against the US, could mean that the new dispensation may have Hazara — who are Shia — representation.

A large contingent of the erstwhile pro-India Northern Alliance, made up mainly of Tajik and Hazara, flew to Islamabad on the day Kabul fell — indication that they want to be partners in the new government. Two men to watch in this delegation are Mohammed Mohaqiq, an ethnic Hazara and former mujahid from Mazar-e-Sharif, and Mohammed Karim Khalili, also Hazara and former vice-president during the Karzai presidency.}

 

With so many people involved in the power game, it will be tough task for even Taliban chief to pacify and accommodate all the groups (who supported Taliban) in the regime led by Taliban.

 

It will be only clear in near future, how this new regime functions and whether they can gather the recognition/ support of major countries of the world.

 

Waiting for your views/comments.

 

Anil Malik

Mumbai, India

19^th August 2021