So India achieved a dubious distinction when daily cases crossed the figure of 3.16 Lakh cases yesterday. Earlier this record with 3.07 Lakh daily cases was with USA. Now Covid pandemic has really become a very serious matter. Just in 17 days the daily figure crossed from 1 Lakh cases to 3 lakh cases, which is quite alarming. In terms of cases and death per million, the Covid outbreak in the US has been far worse. USA has the record of 97,000+ cases per million poulation, which is almost 9 times higher than India. The USA’s death per million is 1752, compared to India at 132, almost 13 times higher.
As many as 17 states and Union territories registered their highest ever spike in cases yesterday, with Maharashtra leading the tally with 67,000+ cases followed by UP at 33,000 cases, Karnataka 23,000+ cases, and the lowest tally of daily cases was in Goa with figure of 1500+.
On the vaccine front India’s position is not very encouraging. India ordered vaccine on 21st Jan 2021 officially, although Serum Institute had started production must earlier and by the time India started their vaccine program first with Doctors, nurses, health workers etc, the Serum Institute had millions of doses in their stock, as initially uptake was not very high, India exported the vaccine to many other countries. The fact is when India started the vaccine program the daily cases were about 20,000, from March situation started getting worse as the number of daily cases went on increasing and in the mean time the govt announced all citizens above 60 years and 45+ years with comorbidity are eligible for vaccine doses. With the fear on cases increasing every day, the vaccine drive really picked up, and by the onset of April, the news of vaccine short suppy in many states started appearing. Indian govt’s initial order of vaccines to both the companies Serum Institute (Covidshield) and Bharat Biotech ( Covaxine), the supply for the same will be over during this month. Now both the companies were not in position to cater to India’s monthly requirement, hence import of vaccine from Russia was planned and accordingly 100 million doses of Sputnik V vaccine were ordered.
In the meantime the vaccine manufacturing companies wanted to negotiate the new order with fresh price. Earlier they were supplying the doses at Rs 150 each, and govt hospitals did not charge for vaccine doses , when eligible people were vaccinated. But when the private hospitals were roped in they were allowed to charge Rs 250 per dose ( Rs 150 cost and Rs 100 as administrative expenses).
Now Serum Institute has come out with statement that they are incurring losses at the earlier price of Rs 150 per dose which was special price for initial set, and they have come out with fresh costing of Rs 400 per dose to State run hospital and Rs 600 per dose to private run hospitals. Their spokeperson said that fresh orders fron central govt will be negotiated at this price. Sources at Central govt said that even state govts and private hospitals are free to negotiate the prices with the company. Bharat Biotech has not made any announcement till date. Both the companies combined presently can produce 75 million doses per month. Both the companies have asked financial assistance from central govt, and which have been agreed upon. By June govt expects to receive 100 million doses from Serum Institute, 10 million from Bharat Biotech and 4 million from Sputnik ( manufactured in India)
Now Govt is allowing vaccination for age group from 18 to 45 years from 1st May 2021. The number of people estimated in this age group are 600 million (60 Cr). So extra 1.2 billion (120 Cr) doses will be needed within 3 months, which means roughly 1.3 Cr doses (11.3 million) doses will be required daily. Now the three companies mentioned above combinedly can give 114 million doses, which is equivalent to 10 days requirement. There will be still requirement for the balance doses for remaining 45+ age people for atleast one month.
Talks are on with the other manufacturers to produce vaccine in India, and few companies have shown willingness, but their production capacity will be very small as compared to Serum Institute or even Bharat Biotech. It looks like if India has to complete its vaccination program say by year end then India has to definitely import the vaccine. How the govt is going to work the commercial modes of vaccination now is to be seen, it looks like in govt hospitals govt might subsidise the vaccination charges, but charges in private hospitals will definitely increase many folds.
Let us wait and watch the future developments on this issue.
Waiting for your views/comments.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
22nd April 2021