Last weekend, two important things happened in the country. First was the judgment by the Supreme Court (SC) in the case of the feud between the factions of Shiv Sena ie Uddhav Thackeray group and Eknath Shinde group, and the second was the result of the Karnataka state assembly elections. Both these may have heavy repercussions on the Indian polity in the future.
SC and Shiv Sena case
Friends, you all will recall that Eknath Shinde of erstwhile Shiv Sena, who was a minister in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in Maharashtra, along with 39 other MLAs left the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, and formed separate group claiming to be real Shiv Sena. This breakaway group got the support of the BJP, and then CM Uddhav Thackeray fearing the loss of the majority resigned as the CM. The new government was formed with Eknath Shinde as CM, in alliance with BJP. This case of split in Shiv Sena afterward landed in the SC. In a nutshell matter before the SC was concerning the following issues-
1 Before the total split happened in the Shiv Sena, there was notice given to the Speaker of Assembly for the disqualifications of 16 MLAs, who had disobeyed the whip of the original Shiv Sena. Here the issue was, as there was no speaker, and the deputy speaker was facing a no-confidence motion against him, so no action could be taken as claimed by the Shinde group.
2 As per Uddhav group the Governor was not right in asking CM Uddhav Thackeray to face the floor test, after 40 MLAs and some independents withdrew their support to the MVA government led by Uddhav Thackeray. Uddhav did not face the floor test and he resigned.
3 Uddhav group claimed in the SC that the Election Commission of India (ECI) erred in allotting the name, and symbol of the erstwhile Shiv Sena to the Shinde group.
The five judge bench led by the Chief Justice of India (CJI) heard this case, in their order said;
- On the real issue of split in the party, the five-judge bench said it is a constitutional issue, and presently with existing laws the split in the party looks OK, but a separate 7 judge bench will look into this issue and how to take care these types of party split in the future.
- On the issue of disqualifications of 16 MLAs, they were of the opinion that the courts can not take a decision in this matter, they directed the present Speaker of the Assembly to take the decision in this matter.
- On the issue of the Governor erring in calling the floor test, the SC said that the prima facie it looked like the Governor erred in this matter, but then the CM Uddhav Thackeray did not face the floor test and resigned. So, the SC can not reinstate him as the CM.
- On the issue of allotting names and symbols- the SC said, this matter is prerogative of the Election Commission, and they can not interfere in this matter.
Now Uddhav Thackeray group is claiming moral victory, and asking Eknath Shinde to resign, whereas the Shine group response is ‘Where was Uddhav Thackeray’s morals and ethics when after fighting the election in alliance with BJP, and the alliance won the majority, he ditched the alliance so that he could become CM with the support of Congress and BJP, and went against the Hindutava principle laid by the Shiv Sena founder Bala Saheb Thackeray.
The victory of the Congress party in the Karnataka elections
1 It seems that the anti-incumbency factor went against the BJP, and it has so happened that for the last 40 years, no party has won the Karnataka state election two times in a row.
2 The BJP was facing anti-incumbency, and secondly, they did not have strong local leadership for campaigning, and most of the campaigning was done by the PM, Home Minister, and other central leaders.
3 On the contrary the Congress party has two strong local leaders, Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, and they were ably supported by Congress central leadership.
4 The BJP’s campaign was mainly on issues of national importance, and their campaign talked less about the State’s issues, this factor also went against them.
5 The BJP talked less on the issues of inflation, while the Congress’ one of main planks was the issue of inflation.
In my opinion, the BJP is also going the Congress way of Indira Gandhi’s days, when Indira Gandhi was supremo, and there was no effective leadership in many states. In the present scenario, even the BJP is in the same situation where Narendra Modi is the supremo and their star campaigner, and in many states, there are no leaders who can effectively campaign. Secondly, the BJP’s plank of national integrity, Hindutava, national security, and other such issues may not attract state voters’ attention. The State elections have to cover the issues faced by the State along with national issues. So, it is a WAKE-UP call for the BJP, as before the next general elections in 2024, there are going to be elections in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, and out of three, two are presently governed by the Congress.
Waiting for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
15th May 2023