26 Indian opposition political parties have formed an alliance to take on PM Modi’s party BJP in the general election due in 2024. This opposition’s coalition will be called INDIA, an acronym for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. The leaders from these 26 political parties met in Bengaluru on the 17th and 18th of July 2023. The leaders discussed issues such as seat sharing-how many seats each party will contest-and common program for the next general election. But taking on Mr. Modi’s BJP- which won more than 300 seats in 543 member Lok Sabha in 2019-will be a formidable challenge even for a mostly united opposition.
Even though it has a mixed record in recent state elections, the BJP still governs 15 states (India has 28 states and 8 Union Territories) either by itself or as part of the coalition. Its biggest strength in a national election is the popularity of PM Modi, who has been able to sway even voters who may have voted for a different party in the state election.
Meanwhile, opposition parties are grappling with their own challenges. Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi was disqualified as MP in March 2023, in a defamation case, unless his legal appeal is successful in the Supreme Court (SC), he can not contest the next election. Many of the political parties are also at loggerheads with each other in states such as West Bengal and Delhi due to different political ideologies. Some like Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), are battling with internal defections, while others are trying to deal with a lack of unity among their senior state leaders. It is only the strong anti-BJP sentiment that is bringing them together.
Here is the full list of Opposition Parties, who have formed this alliance with their position in the Lok Sabha in last general election in 2019
1 Congress- 53 seats
2 All India Trinamool Congress (TMC)- 23 seats
3 Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)- 24 seats
4 Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)- No seat
5 Janata Dal United (JD-U)- 16 seats ( even though there is a break up in this party- no idea how much seat Nitish Kumar group is holding)
6 Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)- No seat
7 Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)- 1 seat
8 Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) (Sharad Pawar faction) won 5 seats in 2019, but presently they may have only 1 seat after the recent breakup
9 Shiv Sena (UBT)- Shiv Sena won 19 seats in 2019, but with the breakup, UBT faction is having only 5 seats now.
10 Samajwadi Party (SP)-3
11 Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)- No seat
12 Apna Dal (Kamerawadi)- No seat
13 National Conference of J & K (NC)-3 seats
14 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-No seat
15 Communist Party of India- Marxist (CPM)-3 seats
16 Communist Party of India (CPI)-2 seats
17 Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation
18 Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP)- 1 seat
19 All India Forward Block- No seat
20 Marumalrachi Dradida Munetra Kazhagam (MDMK)- No seat
21 Vidhthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK)- 1 seat
22 Kongunadu Makkal Desia Katchi (KMDK)-No seat
23 Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK)-No seat
24 Indian Muslim League (IMU)-3 seats
25 Kerala Congress (M)- 1 seat
26 Kerala Congress (Joseph)-No seat
All the above parties won in total 141 seats, out of 26 parties there are 10 parties who did not win even a single seat.
So if this coalition INDIA has to defeat Modi’s party BJP, which alone won 303 seats in 2019, then they have to really work hard in the next 8 months. Presently out of 140 odd seats, 100 are with Congress, TMC and DMK, with Congress having 53 seats. Now to achieve the magic mark of 272 seats (majority mark), these three parties will have to at least double their tally as BJP is not strong in these states. This is impossible for TMC and DMK, as their states West Bengal and Tamilnadu do not have as many seats, so the onus will have to be on Congress, they will have to win at least 160 seats. And TMC and DMK will have to improve their tally which is 23 and 24 seats presently, and go up to 70 seats (combined). With Congress at 160, plus these 70 seats, the total goes to 230. Then they can expect other smaller parties to cobble up together 50 to 60 seats.
All other parties have limited scope in their states, as none of them are even a leading party in their own state . It looks like a herculean task for the coalition. Even history is against such coalitions which are basically formed to oppose only one person or one party. Remember the 1977 experiment of the Janata Party which was formed only as an anti-Indira Gandhi front, then in the 1989 experiment by Janata Dal-anti Rajiv Gandhi front, and lastly 1996-Janata Dal with outside support of Congress- anti-BJP front. All these experiments failed. After that there were three coalition governments were formed in 1999, 2004, and 2009, where the main party had around 180-200 seats. After 2009, it was BJP although they had an alliance with other parties, but on their own, they got more than majority seats of their own in 2014 and 2019.
In this INDIA front, there is no single party that can become a dominant partner to control others, as they do not have any leader with pan-India popularity who can pull the voters to the polling booth. Secondly country as a whole is doing quite well on the economic front, and PM Modi is a popular leader pan India, and also he is among the top three leaders of the world, so defeating him will be the toughest task for this coalition.
So we have to wait and watch till May 2024.
Waiting for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
19th July 2023