Last week on 19th July 2023, I wrote a blog on the Opposition Parties alliance called INDIA. In that blog, I wrote about, if this alliance has to dislodge PM Modi’s government, then the Congress party has to play a leading role, as it is the only pan-Indian political party in this alliance, and they should try to win160+ seats with TMC and DMK should increase their tally from 70 (23+24) to at least 70 seats, and the balance should come from smaller parties. Let us go state-wise to see the present position of the parties of this alliance in the Lok Sabha (LS), and whether can they increase their tally to reach the magic figure of 272 seats for the majority in the LS:
1 Uttar Pradesh (UP)- No. of seats in LS-80. Position in 2019- BJP-62, BSP-10, SP-5, Congress-1, and others -2. In the 2019 election, there was an alliance between BSP and SP. Presently Mayawati’s BSP is not a part of either alliance ie NDA or INDIA. With CM Yogi of BJP sitting quite strongly, and BSP out of the alliance, it will be tough for India alliance partners to get more seats. I won’t be surprised if BJP adds more seats to their tally in the present scenario.
2 Maharashtra– No.of seats-48. Position in 2019-, BJP-23, Shiv Sena-18, Congress-1, NCP-4, Independent-1, others-1. In 2019 there was an alliance between BJP & Shiv Sena on one side, and Congress & NCP on the other side. After the state election in 2019, Shiv Sena broke away from BJP and formed the MVA alliance with Congress & NCP. Presently both the original Shiv Sena and original NCP have split, and both parties have breakaway factions joining NDA. So the Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar), and Shiv Sena (UBT) partners in the INDIA alliance are not at any advantage. It looks like NDA which won 41 seats in 2019, might or might not lose a few seats, depending on the strength of the INDIA alliance.
3 West Bengal– No. of seats-42. Position in 2019, TMC-22, Congress-2, BJP-18. With INDIA alliance has TMC, Congress, and Left block as alliance partners, but how these parties are going to share the seats for contesting is to be seen, as before the INDIA alliance these three were at loggerheads with each other from grass root level to the top. Chances are the INDIA alliance may gain a few seats.
4 Bihar– No. of seats- 40. Position in 2019, BJP-17, JDU-16, Congress-1, LJP-6. At that time JDU was part of NDA, but the alliance was broken, and Nitish Kumar of JDU, who is CM of the state joined hands with Congress, and RLD (Lallu Prasad party) and Congress. The situation here is quite dicey, it will be very difficult for both NDA and INDIA alliance to gain major seats from this state.
5 Tamil Nadu– No. of seats-38. Position in 2019, Congress-8, DMK-30. Although now AIADMK is part of the NDA alliance, here advantage lies with the INDIA alliance, and they will maintain their position.
6 Madhya Pradesh (MP)- No. of seats-29. Position in 2019, Congress-1, BJP-28. Here the advantage is with NDA, and if the INDIA alliance opposes very efficiently with strong candidates, they may gain few seats. We might have a clear picture after the state elections in late 2023.
7 Karnataka– No. of seats 28. Party position in 2019, Congress-1, BJP-25, JDS-1, Independent-1. As presently state is being run by Congress, here advantage lies with the INDIA alliance, although JDS is now aligned with NDA, but it will not benefit much to BJP. Here the INDIA alliance can wrest 5-8 seats from BJP.
8 Gujarat– No. of seats 26. Position in 2019, BJP-26. India alliance will have an impossible task to wrest even one seat from BJP/NDA from this state, as this is the home state of both PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.
9 Andhra Pradesh (AP)- No. of seats 25. Party position in 2019. YSR Congress-22, and Telugu Desam Party (TDP)-3. As these parties are not part of either alliance NDA or INDIA. Presently both these parties gave tactical support to NDA in Parliament, chances are they might give outside support to NDA after the elections.
10 Rajasthan– No. of seats 25. Party position in 2019. BJP-24, RLP-1. Here advantage lies with NDA. Although during the 2019 general elections, the state was ruled by Congress, the still BJP won 24 seats, and Congress nil. There are state elections in late 2023, INDIA will have a chance to retain the state and if they lose the state then NDA will have a real upper hand.
11 Odisha– No. of seats- 21. Congress-1, BJP-8, Biju Janata Dal (BJD)-12. BJD is not part of either alliance, but from time to time it gives tactical support to NDA in Parliament. So here also the INDIA alliance will find it very difficult to gain any extra seats.
12 Kerala– No. of seats 20. Congress-15, IML-2, CPM-1, Kerala Congress (Mani)-1, others-1. Here the advantage is with the India alliance, as there is no presence of NDA. So no gains for the INDIA alliance from this state.
Details of the rest of the states and Union Territories (UT) will be in my next blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
24th July 2023