Today I am writing part 2 of my yesterday’s blog INDIA Alliance-2024 Elections. The state/UT wise various party’s position in Lok Sabha after the 2019 elections:
13 Telengana– Total No. of seats 17. Party position in 2019, Congress-3, BJP-4, Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS)-9, AIMIM-1. Congress and TRS are part of the INDIA alliance, and BJP is also doing quite well in this state after 2019. But as per the present scenario, it looks like BJP may retain its tally. So in the end it might be the status quo.
14 Assam– Total No. of seats- 14. Party position in 2019, Congress-3, BJP-9, Ind-1, AIUDF-1. It does not look like the INDIA alliance will gain any seats other than what they have. There is a high possibility of the BJP might improve its position.
15 Jharkhand– Total No. of seats- 14. Party position in 2019, Congress-1, BJP-11, JMM-1, AJSU-1. Although Congress and JMM are both part of the INDIA alliance, there is the possibility that both may improve their position.
16 Punjab– Total No. of seats-13. Party position in 2019, Congress 8, BJP-2, SAD-2, AAP-1. Congress and AAP are part of the INDIA alliance, and now AAP is ruling the state, it looks like the INDIA alliance has the advantage here, and they might improve their tally.
17 Chhatisgarh– Total No. of seats 11,. Party position in 2019, Congress-2, BJP-9. The state will be going for election in the latter part of this year. Presently Congress is ruling this state, if they can retain the power in the state then they will be in a better position, but the problem is even in 2019 they were ruling but still BJP gained more seats in Lok Sabha elections.
18 Haryana– Total No. of seats 10. Party position in 2019, BJP-10. If the INDIA alliance tries very hard they might gain one or two seats from this state.
19 Delhi-Total No. of seats 7. Party position in 2019, BJP-7. Although AAP, which is part of the INDIA alliance, were ruling the state in 2014 and 2019, the still BJP swept both the elections of Lok Sabha.
20 J & K ( now UT)- Total no of seats 6. Party position in 2019, BJP-3, JKNC-3. It looks like in 2024, BJP may not lose any seats.
21 Uttarakhand– Total No. of seats-5. Party position in 2019, BJP-5. Here the advantage is still with BJP.
22 Himachal Pradesh (HP)- Total No. of seats 4, Party position in 2019, BJP-4. INDIA alliance may gain a few seats, as Congress is now ruling the state.
23 Tripura– Total No. of seats 2. Party position in 2019, BJP-2. It may be a status quo.
24 Meghalaya– Total No. of seats 2. Party position in 2019, Congress-1, NPEP-1. Advantage INDIA alliance.
25 Arunachal Pradesh– Total No. of seats 2. Party position in 2019, BJP-2. Status quo.
26 Manipur– Total No. of seats 2. Party position in 2019, BJP-1, NPF-1. With the present unrest if not settled amicably, then advantage INDIA alliance.
27 Goa– Total No. of seats-2. Party position in 2019, Congress-1, BJP-1. Status quo.
28 Pondicherry– Seat-1. Party position in 2019, Congress-1.
29 Nagaland– Seat-1. Party position in 2019, NDPP-1.
30 Mizoram-Seat-1. Party position in 2019, MNFF-1
31 Andaman & Nicobar– Seat-1,. Party position in 2019, Congress-1.
32 Dadra & Nagar Haveli– Seat-1. Party position in 2019, Congress-1.
33 Daman & Diu– Seat 1. Party position in 2019, Independent-1.
34 Sikkim– Seat 1. Party position in 2019, SKM-1
35 Lakshadweep– Seat 1. Party position in 2019, NCP-1.
36 Chandigarh-Seat 1. Party position in 2019- BJP-1.
States and UTs (from sr no. 23 to 36) contribute 19 seats only. States from sr no. 13 to 22 contribute 101 seats. That means the first 12 states totally contribute 423 seats. So the main fight between the two alliances will be in these 12 states. Presently BJP/NDA is holding 316 seats from these 423 seats, then there are two states Odisha and Andhra where two main parties BJD and YSR Congress are not part of any alliance. As per the details available INDIA alliance is holding presently about 145 seats, which are mainly from smaller states and UTs, their present 2 big states are West Bengal and Tamil Nadu (52 seats). So if they have to achieve the mid-way position then they have to breach BJP/NDA’s stronger states like UP, Gujarat, MP, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Haryana, which give NDA about 230 seats. If the INDIA alliance can not wrest at least 130-140 of these seats from NDA, then only they will have a chance to reach the mid-way mark of majority. Friends, do you think it will be possible? In my opinion, unless there is some pro-INDIA alliance wave or Anti Modi/BJP wave then only it is possible, which seems highly improbable.
In the end, all I can say is this is last ditch effort by the INDIA alliance, but other than their one-line agenda to remove PM Modi, they do not have any concrete program of development. In the end, they are going to rely on the offer of freebies to lure voters, which is detrimental to the nation.
Friends, what is your opinion on this matter, please write your views in the comment column at the end of this post.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
25th July 2023