Last month assembly elections took place in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Chattishgarh, Telengana and Mizoram. The focus of the full nation was on the four states other than Mizoram, as it was where main political parties like BJP and Congress were contesting elections. After the elections when the exit polls came out and most of them said Telengana and Chattisgarh would go to Congress and there is neck to neck fight between Congress and BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. But what a turnaround when the election results started coming out yesterday, as predicted only Telengana went Congress’s way but in the other states BJP trounced Congress by a convincing margin, and in MP BJP won almost 100 seats more than Congress. Even in Telengana BJP improved their tally from the previous assembly where they had only 1 seat and this time they secured 8 seats.
These election results have shown that things are looking darker for any opposition alliance hoping to stand against the BJP at this point. The General Elections in the country are only 5 months away, and this is not a good sign for Congress and other regional parties who are opposing BJP. Indirectly these poll results are a wake-up call for INDI alliance, which is headed by the Congress and consists of other 25 political parties.
What went in favour of the BJP in these elections:
1 The Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Now it is a proven fact that there is no other pan-India leader of the stature of Narendra Modi. The Congress projected leader Rahul Gandhi, popularly known as Pappu in the country, is no match for Narendra Modi. In every election Congress & Rahul Gandhi come out with some funny and non-sensible phrases against Narendra Modi like Chaiwala, Maut Ka Saudagar, Chaukidar Chor Hai, Advani’s Agent, and this time it was Panauti (slang for bad luck). In the last nine years, Congress has not realized that calling names is not going to work. On the other hand, Modi’s popularity among the masses is unbelievable, and his work speaks for itself. People are really happy with Jandhan yojana, beti padado beti bachao yojana, houses for poor people, and direct money transfers to bank accounts for all benefit schemes launched by the central government.
It is high time that Congress and other opposition parties should realize that defaming Narendra Modi is not going to bring votes to them either in the state or general elections. If they have to counter Modi, they have to come out schemes for the progress of the country, and not announce the freebies before any election.
2 Organisational Strength and other leaders
In Amit Shah, the BJP has got one of the best poll strategists in the country, and he is popularly known as Chanakya of Indian politics. He is the person who was instrumental in delivering Uttar Pradesh to the BJP in 2014 when BJP won 74 seats out of 80 in the 2014 general elections, and after that, he never looked back.
Secondly, the BJP has got the world’s largest grassroots level workers which any political party can hope for. Here their parent organization the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) comes into the picture, the RSS has lakhs of dedicated members.
3 Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas
This slogan was created by Narendra Modi, when he came to power in 2014 at centre. The fact is that Modi at centre and BJP ruled states have worked on this principle, and all the schemes formed by them are based on this principle of progress for everyone. One more thing which worked in these elections was that ‘Yeh Modi Ki Guarantee Hai’, and people believe that when Modi says something it will be definitely done.
4 Santatan Dharam and Hindutva
It is known to every Indian citizen that the BJP is pro Hindutva party, and Congress and other leftist parties are against this concept of Hindutva. Presently it is coming out in the open that the Congress is pro Muslim party and they are least bothered for Hindus. After the independence, Congress has done only to divide Hindus on a caste basis and instigated discontent among various castes. Before these state elections, one more thing happened was that a leader of the DMK party said (partner of INDI alliance) whose main aim is to eradicate the Santana Dharam from India. This statement was not like by the Hindus, who are followers of Sanatan Dharam. Secondly, no leader of the Congress party and other parties who are part of INDI alliance condemn this statement. This angered Hindus, and even Hindus, who were not pro BJP earlier, went and cast their votes in BJP’s favour.
At this juncture it looks like, if things remain like this on the opposition front, there will be no contest in the next general elections in April/May 2024, and the BJP will romp home.
It is clear that the Grand Old Party Congress, whether at the national or state level, is failing to provide any coherent vision for the electorate against its counterpart BJP. The problem is that in the INDI alliance the Congress is the only party which has pan India presence, all the other components of INDI alliance are regional parties. Unfortunately for the Congress party, the Gandhi family has done little to ensure that they are capable of fighting the BJP, which is seen by current results. The party’s core decision-making architecture remains deeply rooted within Gandhi family, although Khadgeji is Congress Party President, this has only increased factionalism and disorganized the party’s core vision. The BJP is therefore happy to let the Gandhi family silently anchor the party towards doom.
In the 2024 general elections, despite what electoral verdict India’s south might give now, which is not in favour of the BJP, numbers from the Hindi heartland would matter in deciding the 2024 general election’s result. Presently it shows that BJP’s ruthlessly pragmatic vision is still accepted without contest because of feeble opposition. Unfortunately, everyone, except the Congress, rusting under the confused leadership of the Gandhi family, has realized this. Now the ball is in Congress’ court because all the other constituents of INDI alliance are not going to give any generous leeway in deciding the ways to fight BJP in 2024.
Waiting for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
4th December 2023s