So finally Modi 3.0 is in the saddle, as yesterday evening Narendra Modi and his full Cabinet of 72 ministers took oath of office. But this time it is in a real sense a coalition government, as compared to Modi 1.0 and Modi 2.0 BJP does not have the majority of its own. By looking at the cabinet, looks like a balanced cabinet with adequate representation of ministers from states and UTs. Although BJP did not fare well in the state of Uttar Pradesh, still the state as representation of 11 ministers, other states representations are- Bihar 8, Maharashtra 6, Gujarat 6, Karnataka 5, Madhya Pradesh 5, Rajasthan 4, Haryana 3, Odisha 3, Andhra 3, West Bengal 2, Jharkhand 2, Assam 2, Telangana 2, and Kerala 2. Punjab, Tamilnadu, Goa, Arunachal Pradesh, J&K, Uttarakhand, NCT of Delhi, and Chhatisgarh have one minister each.
13 states and UTs do not have ministers. But they just represent 2% of India’s population, and they are: A&N islands (0.03%), Chandigarh (0.09%) D & Nagar Haveli and Daman &Diu (0.1%), Himachal Pradesh (0.54%), Ladakh (0.02%), Lakshadweep (0.005%), Manipur (0.23%), Meghalaya (0.24%), Mizoram (0.09%), Puducherry(0.12%), Nagaland (0.16%), Sikkim (0.05%) and Tripura (0.3%).
Out of 72 members cabinet, 30 are Cabinet Ministers, 5 are Ministers of State (Independent Charge) and rest are Minister of State/Deputy Minister. As many as 5 cabinet positions, 2 Ministers of State (Independent Charge) and 4 Minister of State position are allotted to allies. The distribution of cabinet posts favours larger coalition partners like JDU, LJP, TDP, and JDS.
Most of the heavy weight ministers from the Modi 2.0 have been retained except for some who lost in the elections.
How the foreign media covered the swearing-in-ceremony of PM Modi, who is 2nd Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to be elected for a third time in a row.
- The New York Times reported “ The political air in New Delhi appeared transformed as the new government was sworn in. Denied a parliamentary majority, PM Modi turned to diverse set of coalition partners, who are now enjoying relevance ad spotlight”.
- B B C stuck to more objective style of reporting with no analysts weighing upon Modi 3.0 and the election results. It, however, noted that the ruling alliance won by lower margin than predicted by the exit polls-in an election that saw resurgence of India’s opposition.
- Al Jazeera reported that the lack of majority will test the BJP’s ability to ensure policy certainty in a coalition government. It noted the challenges the alliance may face the two major coalition-era veterans Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, who “have friends across the aisle”, and opposition will be wooing them.
- Bloomberg captured the grandeur of the oath event- that was attended by 8000 guests including foreign head of states, business tycoons and Bollywood stars. It noted that it is the first time PM Modi will be sharing power while extending his leadership.
- AFP France’s AFP news agency provided a overall details of the event-from the decorations to the coalition partners, whose support was key to formation of government. It also said that larger coalition partners may demand hefty concessions in exchange of their support.
It looks like after the swearing in ceremony, both Nitish Kumar of JD U and Chandrababu Naidu of TDP have accepted the leadership of Narendra Modi and have agreed for whatever number of minister’s posts in the cabinet offered to their parties, but it is definite that they will be asking for special packages for their states Bihar and Andhra Pradesh.
As per the political experts/analysts
- Modi 3.0 government will likely to maintain its emphasis on digital infrastructure and on the energy transition. This will involve the accelerated development and modernization of highways, railways, airports, and ports.
- While petroleum will remain key part of the energy mix, the government is likely to maintain its goal of using green energy sources for mush of India’s growing energy requirements.
- The government could deploy a mix of current and new programs-involving benefits, credit, skilling, and employment guarantees-aimed at women, the youth, the poor, farmers and small business owners. As such groups are most vulnerable to economic shocks.
- The government will likely to face challenges both abroad and at home as it seeks to keep economy growing around at 7% of GDP per year. Both USA and Europe are ramping up their industrial policies, this could dampen manufacturing growth in India by limiting direct investments and exports.
There is going to be some confusion in the beginning, which is natural in coalition politics and diverse democracy. Additionally, perspectives and priorities will vary across different arms of government, and stakeholders each represents.
The experts feels that, Modi 3.0 has the makings of a transformative term for India.
Let us hope for the best for Modi 3.0 team.
Waiting for your feedback on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
10th June 2024