Maharashtra went for Assembly Election on 20th November 2024, and the results were declared on 23rd November. Before the elections and even after the votes were cast all the experts had predicted a close finish between the two contesting alliances. The first is called Mahayuti consisting of BJP, Shiv Sena , and NCP , and the second between Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), and NCP (Sharad Pawar) called Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). When the actual results started coming it looked like Tsunami by the Mahayuti alliance, and they won 232 seats out of 288, where as MVA could just manage to win 50 seats. All the pollsters were proved wrong and even best of the exit polls had predicted Mahayuti getting 175 to 200 seats.
Now what went wrong with MVA? Just six months back they had won 31 Lok Sabha seats out of 48 in Maharashtra. It looked like before the elections the constituent groups of MVA were fighting for seats and who will be the CM face, and they continued with the same campaign which they used for Lok Sabha elections, and it did not went well the masses because in their campaign they were talking less of local issues, and more of caste census, Constitution amendment, Adani group funding BJP and its allies.
Friends, as your are aware that political party Shiv Sena broke about two and half hears back, and NCP broke about one and half year back. I am not going into details about what happened after break up in these two political parties.
The results were big setbacks for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, as both were trying to prove that they are original Shiv Sena and NCP, but the results dashed their hopes, as electorate of Maharashtra backed Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and NCP led by Ajit Pawar, and now it is conclusive proven that Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are true leaders of Shiv Sena and NCP. Earlier Election Commission had also ruled in their favour after the split.
This election has left Uddhav Thackrey to ponder whether he made big mistake for leaving BJP alliance in 2019, as he could just manage to win only 20 seats out of 100+ his party contested. Uddahv Thackeray who became the CM of Maharashtra with the backing of Congress and undivided NCP in 2019, now has lost grip on his party and legacy of his father Balasaheb Thackeray. In 2022, Eknath Shinde faction had accused Uddhav Thackeray for abandoning his father’s principles for political gain, turned the election into a battle of “who is real Shiv Sena?”
Here are possible reasons why Uddhav Thackeray’s lost the narrative in this election:
1 Shift from Balasaheb’s Hindutva Ideology
Balasaheb has build his Shiv Sena on Hindutva and Marathi pride. Under Uddhav, however, the alliance with Congress and NCP alienated core supporters. This ideological drift allowed the BJP, under Devendra Fadnavis and Eknath Shinde, to consolidate Hindutva voter base. Even his cousin Raj Thackeray( Maha Navnirman Sena-MNS) also criticized for straying from Balasaheb’s vision.
2 Perception of Appeasement Politics
Uddhav’s alleged focus on Muslim appeasement created discontent among traditional Shiv Sena voters. Shinde leveraged this narrative, with welfare schemes like Ladki Behna Yojana and strong Hindutva messaging. Uddhav also showed opposition to renaming of Aurangabad and Osmanabad. He did not visit newly built Ram Mandir at Ayodhya, and on the other hand he agreed to give Rs 1000 Cr to built mosque. Then MVA also started talking about the reservations for the Muslims. His alliance partner Congress’s state President before elections met Muslim leaders and agreed to their multiple demands in lieu of votes for MVA. He also openly talked about opposing The Waqf Board Amendment Bill in Parliament.
3 Lynching of Sadhus- Palghar 2020
Uddhav faced criticism for allegedly halting the probe into the 2020 Palghar Sadhus lynching case, under Congress pressure. This delay damaged his image as Hindutva leader. Uddhav, at that time, had asked all the party leaders to refrain from speaking on this sensitive matter. The order was given to stay mum. What was the secret behind it? The secret was that Uddhav Thackeray had received a call from Rahul Gandhi, to stall the probe. The probe was later handed over to CBI, the delay in handover damaged the probe. Eknath Shinde after becoming CM in July 2022 gave a cheque of Rs5 Lakh each to kin of three lynched persons
4 Uddhav’s CEO-style Leadership
This alienated grassroots workers, as he was seen as unapproachable. Leaders like Eknath Shinde and BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis capitalised on this disconnect by maintaining strong voter outreach and organisational unity. Even Sena veterans criticized Uddhav’s lack of communication and decision-making.
One of his own MP charged Uddhav Thackeray with failing to grow the party organization and being surrounded by coterie. Uddhav’s lack of communication and inability to handle any situation with due diligence damaged the party very badly.
5 Opposing Dharavi’s Redevelopment
He said his party would oppose transforming Mumbai into Adani city. He criticised Adani’s award of the Dharavi redevelopment tender as potentially problematic and called for its cancellation. The multi crore Dharavi slum redevelopment project involves no land transfer to Adani group but to Maharashtra government’s departments, and the Adani group, as a project developer will build houses that will be handed over to the same departments for allotment to residents of Asia’s biggest slum, and balance FSI area will be sold commercially.
It is going to very difficult for Uddhav Thackeray and his branch of Shiv Sena to get back on the political track in near future, as he has distanced himself from Hindutva ideology, and future of Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP looked very bleak in Maharashtra, with whom he has formed an alliance. Secondly, whether he will be able to hold 20 MLAs (who has won this election) into his fold, and same will be case of Sharad Pawar’s 10 MLAs. What is the guarantee these 20 and 10 MLAs respectively won’t ditch Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, and join real Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and real NCP (Ajit Pawar).
In the end Congress has no leader left in Maharashtra who can hold the party together, and what to talk about Congress’s central leadership. They do not know the pulse of the voters, and always talk about freebies and other irrelevant matters.
Waiting for your feedback on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
25th November 2024
C G Hegde
When such land slide victory happens there have to be some quite strong reasons as you mentioned. But what has made large scale voting to Mahayuti is cash incentives to public.
Now a days this is the trend .. even in Jharkhand Soren won easily because of this. In Karnataka Congress swept elections because of Cash incentives & frees. Unless this is limited only to really poor population, will turn out to be a competition in future elections and ultimately ruin developmental works & economy