In the recently held elections for the Bihar Assembly, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising mainly the BJP and JDU parties, scored a convincing and landslide victory over the Mahagathbandhan alliance, primarily consisting of the Congress and RJD. The NDA won 202 seats out of 243 seats and Mahagathbandhan could achieve 35 seats. It was the first time in Bihar that any alliance had breached the 200-seat mark.
It was quite a setback for Mahagathbandhan, as they were so confident of winning this election that their CM face Tejashwi Prasad Yadav ( son of Laloo Prasad yadav) had openly announced they were going to win and he would take oath as CM on 18th November.
The 2025 Bihar assembly election has delivered a blunt verdict against Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan. What began as a confident campaign by RJD, Congress and Left crumbled almost immediately once counting began on 14th November. The sheer scale of seat gap between NDA and Mahagathbandhan caught every senior poll strategist off guard.
Here is a closer look at the factors which were responsible for the debacle of Mahagathbandhan.
1 ‘VOTE CHORI’ MISFIRED
Tejashwi Yadav leaned heavily on Rahul Gandhi’s “Vote Chori” charge, hoping to turn it into a central campaign plank. But the message never took shape on the ground. It did not spark voter interest, nor did it resonate as a credible threat. Local concerns ended up overshadowing the national-level pitch the alliance tried to amplify.
2 OVEREXTENDED POLL PROMISES
The alliance weighed itself down with a manifesto packed with expansive and often unrealistic commitments. The most striking was Tejashwi Yadav’s pledge to give every household a government job within 20 days of forming government. With an estimated 27.6 million families in Bihar, that would translate into creating 27 million government jobs- costing roughly Rs 6.75 trillion a year, nearly twice the State’s ‘s FY 2026 budget. Their manifesto also promised government-employee status for Jeevika Didis, permanent posts for all contractual and outsourced workers, and a return to the Old Pension Scheme. The feasibility gap gave NDA ample ammunition.
3 POOR COORDINATION BETWEEN ALLIES
Despite the public show of unity between Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, the INDIA bloc could not maintain cohesion. Candidate selection, resource sharing, and district level planning repeatedly ran into friction. Congress even flew to Patna to ease tensions, but infighting persisted on 12 seats right up to the nomination withdrawal deadline. The rift widened enough for the JMM to walk out over seat-sharing disagreements.
4 CONGRESS HARD BARGAINING
The Congress pushed for larger seat share than its on-ground strength justified. In several constituencies, this produced ‘friendly fights’ splitting votes and draining whatever momentum the alliance tried to build.
5 BACKLASH FROM NON-YADAV COMMUNITIES
Ground reports from multiple districts indicated that over-assertiveness by sections of Yadav cadre pushed Extremely backward Classes and Dalit voters away from alliance. The shift was sharp enough to hurt the Mahagathbandhan even in long-held pockets.
Taken together, these missteps left the Mahagathbandhan exposed against a far more cohesive NDA campaign and Bihar’s voters delivered the rest.
THE PRASHANT KISHORE FACTOR THAT WAS NOT
The Bihar Assembly poll results brought harsh reality check for Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj party (JSP) which failed to secure a single seat. In the recent past he proved himself to be a ‘good political pundit’ who helped several parties with credible leaders in winning the elections. The hype Prashant created for other leaders, he attempted to replicate for himself after entering the political arena in Bihar. However, this initial excitement gradually faded. The Assembly Election results clearly demonstrate that in politics, especially in electoral contests, there is huge difference between hype and reality. Despite his best efforts, he failed to make an impact during this election, as voters overwhelmingly rejected him and his party, denying JSP even a single seat.
His strategic decision of not contesting polls, making claims about CM Nitish Kumar not returning to power, and promising to quit if JDU crosses 25 seat mark are also believed to be deciding factor.
HIGH VOTES, LOW WINS: THE BIG CONTRADICTION
RJD recorded a vote share of 23%,down from 23.11% in 2020 when it emerged largest party with 75 seats. But this time, that same level of popularity translated into just 25 seats. The answer lies in how votes were spread. RJD seems to have polled large number of second-position votes. It remained popular, but not with enough concentrated support in winning zones.
RJD contested 143 seats this time, the highest among all parties across both the NDA and Mhagathbandhan. Contesting widely helped the party accumulate more total votes, contributing to the highest vote share. But losing candidates also add to vote share total. Meanwhile BJP and JDU fought on 101 seats each. They contested fewer seats but converted their votes efficiently into victories. That is why their seat count shot up, even wiyh lower vote share than RJD.
One of the turnarounds happened in seats where RJD and JDU were in direct fight. In 2020, RJD dominated these contests. But in 2025, JDU turned the table and won 50 out of 59, almost wiping out RJD in head-to-head battles. JDU’s vote share also jumped from 15.39% in 2020, to 19.25% this time, helping it win 85 seats from the tally of 43 last time.
The BJP crossed 89 seats, its highest tally ever in Bihar. By staying align with Nitish Kumar, the “Sushasan Babu”, and steadily expanding its footprint, the saffron party has now grown into Bihar’s biggest political force. This shift is not just about arithmetic-it’s psychological. For decades, Bihar’s political story revolved around the Laloo-Nitish axis. Today, it revolves around BJP’s weight, influence and negotiating power.
Waiting for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
17th November 2025