Congress and other opposition parties have been asking the government to conduct a CASTE CENSUS for almost last year. But the central government’s ministers and spokespersons were always saying that earlier Congress governments led by Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi had always said no to caste census, saying that they do not believe in caste etc, and they believe in all human are same. But suddenly last week government announced that in the next census, which will be held in near future, there will be provision for asking caste details. Now why this turn around by the government?
The announcement comes as the opposition, with Congress’s Rahul Gandhi at the forefront, has adopted caste census as a key election plank. It also comes six months ahead of the assembly election in Bihar, one of the key Hindi heartland states.
The decision was taken in the high-level Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA). Here are probable reasons for government’s decision on Caste Census:
1 A Surprise Political Gambit
For long BJP was seen as averse to the caste census. In fact, many party leaders often targeted the Congress, accusing it of using caste to divide the society. As per BJP leaders caste divisions were against the Hindutva’s core ideology of ‘Vasudhaiya Kutumbakam’ 9the world is one family) and how the idea has been adulterated in recent times. BJP leaders went on to blame the Congress Party for never conducting caste census since independence while it was in power. So the announcement came as surprise and the opposition parties which were asking for this census has no other issue to harp on now.
2 Lessons From Last Lok Sabha Polls
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the consolidation of disadvantaged sections of society within SCs, OBCs and STs around the opposition’s agenda impacted the BJP’s numbers in many states and, in fact denied it a simple majority, unlike in 2014 and 2019. As per a senior BJP leader “that the party’s lesson from 2024 results was the need to make constant efforts to win over deprived sections. These sections have been voting for BJP in good numbers since Modi became PM but are not its committed voters. Now, that it will become BJP’s government which undertook the nationwide caste census in independent India will always go in our favour at a time of political assertion by numerous backwards castes.”
3 Congress’s Core campaign Undercut
The announcement comes at a time when the leader of opposition (LOP) and his alliance partners has adopted caste census as a key election plank. Bihar, which is going for election in next 6 months is a key Hindi heartland state, and is considered a cauldron of caste politics in India. Although Rahul Gandhi openly welcomed the government’s decision, and credited the Congress for running sustained campaign on this issue. Gandhi further said his immediate suspicion is that this could be delayed and demanded a specific date for it. The Congress, especially post-2024 results, felt that Caste is the only alternative to Hindutva. Two Congress-ruled states, Telengana and Karnataka have already conducted a basic survey on caste. In the meantime, the BJP realized its wider political implications and decided to own a cause which was never its original idea.
4 Shifting Political Optics ahead of Bihar Polls
While Modi government’s move may have vindicated Congress and Rahul Gandhi, it also indicates that BJP’s expansive intentions for larger political gains. The BJP adapted to changed realities in the past, too. The party adopted popular schemes powered by freebies, which were first offered by opposition parties in Delhi and Karnataka, after initially slamming as ‘Revdi’, as it realized their electoral appeal. Though the date of census is not yet known, the announcement by the BJP government will feature during the election campaign in Bihar.
In Bihar, the cradle of social justice politics, the BJP-JDU alliance has an advantage over rival RJD-Congress-Left combine. But a decline of OBC satrap and CM Nitish Kumar has been a concern in its camp ahead of assembly polls scheduled later this year. This move will boost NDA’s fortunes and may rally traditional support base of numerous smalled backward castes towards it.
5 Thunder Stolen-But Not Entirely
Not just in Bihar, caste census is a key plank of Congress-SP alliance in UP, a state with some similarity to Bihar in terms of the influence of OBC voters. In UP, the BJP led NDA met with a setback in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Clearly, with the announcement, BJP has mitigated the Congress party’s recent build-up on caste; however, it does not leave the opposition without a plank
A political analyst commented “ An announcement of caste census does not mean anything. It is high on optics, and political dialoguebazi. We need to wait for numbers to come out and see how parties weaponise them to seek quotas and sub-quotas in jobs and education proportional to caste representation”.
As the Modi government and opposition parties trade barbs over credit, the run-up to Bihar assemble elections is set to witness intense political churning around caste dynamics.
Let us wait and watch.
Waiting for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
5th May 2025