The Indian political scene is getting hotter as the next general election is only one year away, and all the opposition parties are searching for some formula so that Modi’s government at the Centre can be dislodged. But all of them are aware, that is a very tall order to defeat the NDA government headed by Modi, and daily you hear and read that all these parties are suggesting that there should be unity in opposition to fight the next election. But the problem with the opposition parties is that there are too many aspirants for the PM’s post, there is Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh Yadav, Arvind Kejriwal, and Rahul Gandhi. Presently these parties are holding some 100+ seats in Lok Sabha, and they are hoping they can get 280+ seats to form the government.
But if you go to the past history of Indian politics, whenever opposition parties have come together to form a coalition government, the experiment has failed. I am giving below the instances when this failure happened;
- When Indira Gandhi lifted the emergency in 1977 and announced the general elections, almost all the opposition parties came under Jaiprakash Narayan’s wing and formed Janata Party, and they defeated Congress and its allied parties in the general elections. With the diverse ideology of different parties like Socialists, Jansangh, and Communists, it became difficult to manage the government by then PM Morarji Desai. After two years there was a rebellion in the party with Charan Singh (Dy PM) walking out with his MPs of the erstwhile Lok Dal group. That time Congress party promised to give him outside support and he took oath as PM. Before he could prove his majority on the floor of the house, there was one more development, Jagjivanram also put his claim for Prime Minister’s post, as the balance of the Janata Party and some other smaller parties were ready to support him. But Charan Singh, on the day he was to face the floor test advised the President to dissolve the Lok Sabha, and go in for fresh elections. After the elections, Indira Gandhi came back with a thumping majority.
- In the year 1984, Rajiv Gandhi took over as PM, after the death of his mother Indira Gandhi. He won the elections with 400+ seats in Lok Sabha. But after a few years Bofors scandal came into the open, VP Singh who was earlier finance, and then the defence minister resigned in protest against this scam. During the next general elections, VP Singh formed the Janata Dal and tried for opposition unity, and he became PM. He had to resign as BJP withdrew the support after LK Advani’s Rath Yatra in support of Ram Janam Bhoomi and Ram Temple movement was halted in Bihar. It was then Chandrashekhar, who had the backing of about 55 members of Janata Dal became PM with the external support of Congress. This government lasted only for a few months and the general election was announced in early 1991. Now during the election campaign Rajiv Gandhi, Congress PM’s candidate was assassinated in Tamilnadu. Anyhow Congress could win 200+ seats and formed the government with support from other smaller parties. This government, under the leadership of PV Narsimha Rao lasted the full term.
- In the next general elections in 1996, BJP emerged as the largest party with 182 seats, and was invited to form the government. Atal Bihari Vajpayee became PM, but this government lasted for only 16 days. After that HD Devegowda of Janata Dal became PM with the outside support of Congress and other smaller parties. This government did not last even for one year as Congress Party’s President Sitaram Kesri did not get along with Devegowda, so Janata Dal changed the PM, and now IK Gujral became PM. This government also lasted for a few months, and again Congress withdrew the support, and fresh elections were called for.
After the next general elections, BJP formed the government again, as they had nearly 200 seats, with support from their allies. This government lasted for one year, as BJP lost the majority on the floor of the house by one vote. Again elections were called, and this time BJP got 200+ seats and formed the government with their allies.
Friends, if you go by this history, you will observe that the coalition government did not last its full term when one party did not have around 200 seats. This means that to form a coalition government to succeed at the Centre there must be one dominant party that could garner around 200 seats of its own, and then the rest of the seats can be contributed by the other parties.
In the present scenario, I do not see any political party that can achieve even a 100+ seat target, forget 200 seats, then how can they think of dislodging the BJP government headed by PM Modi? The maximum number of seats held by any opposition party in the present Lok Sabha is 54 by the Congress. And can Congress under the leadership of Khadge/Rahul Gandhi unite all the major opposition parties, and do the miracle? In my opinion, it is next to impossible.
Waiting for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
1st March 2023