Today’s big news concerns the Congress party after the results of elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) were declared yesterday. The Congress party was in a very upbeat mood after the results of many Exit Polls that came out a few days back. The Exit Polls showed Congress winning an absolute majority in Haryana, showing them way ahead of the BJP, and in J&K, Congress, in alliance with the National Conference (NC), formed the government in J&K.
But the actual results proved wrong all the pollsters of Exit Polls, and it was BJP who won the Haryana State with majority of its own by winning 48 seats in the house of 90, with Congress winning only 37 seats. In J&K also their performance was not very encouraging as they just won 6 of the 32 seats they contested, where as their alliance partner NC won 42 of the 51 seats it contested. BJP won 29 seats in J&K. It has become clear that NC has become King of Kashmir Valley by winning 35 seats out of 47, and BJP became Raja of Jammu by winning 29 out of 43 seats. This is BJP’s best show in J&K surpassing their tally of 24 in 2014.
After the defeat in Haryana, the Congress immediately switched to its default position of blaming Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), this time identifying the batteries of ballot units as the main villain. The results appear to have the undercut aura of Rahul Gandhi, which Congress thought has soared after last Lok Sabha (LS) election when Congress won 99 LS seats. But it looks like Rahul Gandhi’s main poll plank of opposing Agniveer scheme, guaranting MSP, caste issues, and allegations about Constitution and caste quota being endangered under BJP did not went well with Haryana’s voters.
The results of both Haryana and J&K has shown that Congress has lost its negotiating powers with their allies. Secondly without their allies Congress’s performance in one to one fight with BJP is nothing to talk about. The Congress has failed in a direct fight against BJP in Haryana, despite BJP facing 10 years of anti-incumbency in the state. The Haryana loss in a straight fight came after defeats in MP, Gujarat, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan. Of these MP debacle stands out as the Congress failed to capitalise on the 15-year anti-incumbency in this state.
Now the Congress will be part of power in J&K because of its alliance partner NC. In Jharkhand too, which goes to polls next month, the Congress is a junior partner of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). To remain relevant in Jharkhand, the Congress will need to latch on to the JMM.
The Congress’s performances in Haryana and J&K will be seized upon by INDI alliance partners, sending the Congress at a disadvantage at the negotiating table. Having doubled its seats in LS elections to 99, the Congress tried to assert itself as the leader of INDI alliance, now after their performances in these two states, Congress will be at disadvantage, in the next month’s elections in Maharashtra & Jharkhand.
In September 2024, a top leader of Congress in Maharashtra issued a statement that ‘ the Congress being the largest in the Maharashtra alliance, should have the privilege of naming the Chief Minister candidate. This privilege might have been lost after the Haryana election. The Congress’s alliance woes are not limited to Maharashtra. Delhi, which will be going to poll in February 2025, will also see tough negotiations with Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). An ‘overconfident’ Congress in Haryana refused to get into alliance with the AAP. Kejriwal might be in the mood of returning the same favour to the Congress in Delhi, where the AAP has wowed with stellar performance in the last two Assembly elections.
Yesterday’s results were a sobering lesson for the Congress, which was buoyed by the last LS results, and asserted itself as the undisputed leader of INDI alliance. Now their allies will be questioning the record of the Congress that has lost its negotiating muscle.
Another factor which always goes against the Congress is their leadership who are involved in the election campaigning. Their leader sometimes talk sheer non-sense, like the Party President Mallikaarjun Khadge saying that I will not die till I remove PM Modi from the Prime Minister’s post. ( This he uttered after he became unwell while campaigning). Secondly what was the meaning of the statement by Rahul Gandhi while campaigning in Haryana ‘ after we come to power in Haryana , I will see to that Jalebi (a sweet/mithai) will become famous world wide, and Haryana will be exporting the same to all corners of the world, and people from Haryana will become rich by selling Jalebis’, without realizing how Jalebi is manufactured. This was similar comment , like he said few years back while campaigning in Amethi how to make Gold from Potato.
The main problem of the Congress is with their leadership. People like Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, and Mallikaarjun Khadge are far away from reality at the grass root levels, and most of the time their campaign fell flat on the audiences.
Will ever Congress party realize that unless they totally revamp their party and leadership, soon they will become irrelevant to Indian polity.
Waiting for your feedback on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
9th October 2024