Exit Polls

The general elections in India are over, and everyone is waiting for the results due on 4^th June, ie tomorrow. The various agencies announced their EXIT POLLS findings on the evening of 1^st June. The average of all the exit polls shows BJP-led NDA will get 365 seats, the INDI alliance will get  146 seats, and others 32 seats.  The minimum number of seats predicted for NDA is 281 with a maximum of 400+, the corresponding figures for  125 and 201, and others ranging from 4 to 49. But one common thing in all the exit polls is that the NDA is returning to power.

For the last 3 decades, only for once the exit polls were proven incorrect was in 2004 when NDA led by AB Vajpayee suffered defeat and UPA led by Congress formed the government. So what will happen on 4^th June is anybody’s guess?

As expected, BJP leaders have welcomed the exit polls predictions which projected thumping victory for NDA, while the Opposition leaders have rejected it by calling it “psychological and corporate game”. As per BJP, the people have shown faith in PM Narendra Modi for the third  consecutive term, outrightly rejecting the divisive politics if INDI alliance.

A day after the exit polls predicted massive win for BJP led NDA in Lok Sabha polls,

• Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has termed the exercise as PM Modi’s  “fantasy poll”. As per him INDI alliance will win 295 seats
• West Bengal CM and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjeee said, “ these exit polls were manufactured by interested parties two months back for media consumption. They have no value.
• Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Akhilesy Yadav said “ Those poor people are forced to give false statistics on TV screens under the pressure of current government, are also saying in hush tones that the BJP is losing. These helpless people are saying that there will be tough fight in 13 important states, and the BJP’s presence in the rest of the states is anyway zero”.
• Congress leader Shashi Tharoor said, “ I can’t take these exit polls very seriously. Some numbers are so far fetched and difficult to believe.
• Congress leader Salman Khurshid said, “ We have met people, made some estimations and set some projections. Those projections say that government will be formed by us.
• AAP leader Somnath Bharti after the exit polls results said “ I vowed to shave my head if Narendra Modi retained the PM’s post after results on 4^th June, and AAP’s national convenor and Delhi’s CM Arvind Kejriwal asserted that INDI alliance would form a strong and stable government at the centre.”

There are many other INDI alliance leader who displayed similar sentiments on the exit polls.

The biggest political analyst and election strategist Prashant Kishore on this year polls  “hours before the exit poll results, he had earlier predicted that BJP might end up winning 303 seats, the number of seats the party won in 2019 polls, or slightly more than that.  He suggested, a potential rise in the BJP’s seat tally and vote share in the eastern and southern states. We should look at the fundamentals. If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless whether there is an alternative or not, people may decide to vote them out. In this election, we have not heard about any widespread  public anger against PM Modi’s government. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but widespread anger is unheard.”

In my opinion, the INDI bloc was formed only for one purpose to defeat PM Modi. They did not had any concrete plans for the development of the country. The constituent party’s leaders just went on to announce the freebies they would offer if elected to form the government, whereas BJP leaders announced about the achievements of their government during last 10 years under the strong leadership of PM Modi. Secondly INDI alliance did not project any of their leaders as their Prime Ministerial  candidate, which created a doubt in the minds of the voters.

So by tomorrow  afternoon we will get clear indications whether the exit polls are true or not.

Anil Malik

Mumbai, India

3^rd June 2024