ARVIND KEJRIWAL has become the latest political leader to fell flat in the recent Delhi State Assembly elections held last week. His party Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) who was ruling the Delhi State for last 12 years lost this State elections, and Arvind Kejriwal along with leaders like Manish Sisodia, Satyendra Jain and many others lost their seats.
A person who arrived on the Indian political scene from Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement in 2012. Arvind Kejriwal promised that he would be a crusader against corruption in government and run a clean government. On this promise, the Delhi electorate voted for his party AAP in the Delhi State elections in 2013, his party won 28 seats and formed the government with the outside support of the Congress party. He resigned on the pretext that the Central government is not fulfilling its promises to Delhi State. In the next State election, AAP won 67 of 70 seats, and again in 2020 elections, AAP won 62 of 70 seats. Effectively they ruled Delhi State for two full terms.
So what happened in these 10 years which led to his fall:
The problem started first with, he forgot that Delhi is not a full-fledged State it is a Union Territory with Assembly because it is also a national capital. He started fighting for State rights for Delhi, which was not possible, the matter went up to the Supreme Court, but status quo was maintained. After that he started aspiring for national leader, and started fighting other State Assembly and Parliament elections, till date his party AAP has not won a single Lok Sabha seat from Delhi in the general elections, his presence in the Parliament is through Delhi Assembly in Rajya Sabha and in Lok Sabha from Punjab. In 2022 his party AAP won the Punjab State elections. This gave him a big boost. In the mean time all the principles on the basis of which AAP had entered politics were forgotten and AAP’s leadership started getting involved in corruption, and many of its leaders were jailed including Arvind Kejriwal Liquor Excise scam of Delhi.
Here are some of the major causes, which led to Arvind Kejriwal’s downfall:
1 Arvind Kejriwal, after the resounding victories in 2020 Delhi and 2022 Punjab State Assembly elections became very egostic and arrogant and started talking non sense. In a repeated public speeches he started openly challenging PM Narendra Modi that Modi will have to taking a second birth to defeat Arvind Kejriwal and AAP in Delhi State elections. He further added that even Modi put all the top leadership in jail in the false cases, AAP leadership will fight election from jail and win the election. He though whatever he say Delhi citizens will listen and agree with him. He failed to read the minds of Delhi voters because of his arrogance.
2 The discussion on the governance should be done through the work carried out by government, and not through advertisements in print, TV and other medias. From 2008-13, the earlier Shiela Dixit government of Delhi spent Rs 76 Cr on advertisements, but AAP government spent Rs 1139 Cr in advertisements in last five years (2020-25). For last so many years, Arvind Kejriwal’s picture used to loom in all national newspaper through AAP’s Delhi and Punjab government Ads. But this election proved that no party can win elections only through giving ads.
3 The public like freebies, but they also expect that the political party give clean government and work for development, and the development work should be seen and it should not remain only on paper. The AAP government in Delhi went on giving freebies like free water, free electricity, free bus travel, but did nothing on good governance and development. They even failed to provide basic necessities like clean water, garbage free roads ,localities etc.
4 Never underestimate the general public. Arvind Kejriwal thought the public never understand about pollution, corruption or development, and they will not think about these problems and t will be happy with freebies. Kejriwal thought with freebies people will start getting extra money and they will not speak about other problems. But this time public proved him wrong.
5 The biggest mistake of Kejriwal was that when he and his colleagues were caught in corruption, he failed to provide clarification to the public, he took people’s trust for granted and never went to people’s court to see whether people are believing in him or not. He just said they have been falsely implicated by ED in the liquor excise case, but courts proved him wrong, and he and his colleagues are out on bail, they have not been acquitted.
6 Delhi’s public had stopped liking his political gimmicks now, when on 5th February, the day of polling, he brought his parent in wheel chair for voting to gain sympathy, people understood his gimmick, and it did not worked in his favour, as he himself lost his own seat.
7 AAP- Congress Rift- The lack of an alliance between AAP and Congress has also been a factor, as in 65 constituencies, Congress candidates’ deposits were forfeited, but they still damaged the AAP. In most of the constituencies votes polled by Congress candidates were more than BJP’s candidate victory margin. In the end it was Arvind Kejriwal’s ego which came in the way of this alliance. Yes, it is true that full Congress votes would not have been transferred to AAP candidate, but AAP might have won few seats more.
8 Middle class voted for BJP- The Delhi’s middle class which had previously backed the BJP in national and AAP in assembly polls, did not return to AAP. Due to Kejriwal’s victimhood narrative, confrontational politics, and corruption allegations, they shifted to BJP.
9 Civic issues- The AAP victory in the 2022 Municipal Elections of Delhi (MCD) indirectly prove detrimental to AAP in assembly elections. The issues such as road conditions, cleanliness, water supply were associated with civic body which was under BJP earlier, the AAP government of Delhi State could squarely put blame on BJP for these issues. However this time they could not do so, and all these problems landed on Kejriwal’s doorstep.
10 Sheesh Mahal- This changed Kejriwal’s image of ‘common man’. Kejriwal has reacted to allegations vigorously, but in Sheesh Mahal case, he could not come clear. He could not gave any clear reply on why he has spent so much money (Rs 50 Cr) during Covid for the renovation of his government accommodation?
Now the ball is in BJP’s court, in their election manifesto they have also promised so many things to Delhi’s population, whether they will be able to do it is to be seen. But BJP government of Delhi State will have clear advantage that as the government at the centre is also of BJP, they will smooth coordination and the central government will be to ready to help them, when the need arise.
As for Kejriwal, he has to reinvent his image and strategy to control the party AAP founded by him to stay relevant in Indian politics. Secondly how AAP will be now able to save their government in Punjab during next elections is to be seen?
Waiting for your vies on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
10th February 2024