The NDA govt,s decision to scrap the three farm laws that led t farmers protest for almost one year, might become game changer in Indian politics. But who will benefit from this move of the govt, is not clear, whether the change will be better or worse, for different political parties on national scene.
What is going to happen in short term ?
1 How the Law be Repealed– Will Article 245 of Constitution vests the right to pass or repeal the law with the Parliament. Since these three laws were passed by Parliament, they would have to be repealed by Parliament. This might happen in the winter session of Parliament, which starts from 29th November 2021.
2 What Will Happen to the Farmers’ Protest?– The farm unions are likely to continue with their stir and demand a constitutional guarantee on Minimum Support Prices (MSP), repeal of the electricity law and action against those behind the Lakhimpur Kheri killings. The unions may scale down on the mass protest they had planned on 26th November, for which farmers were being mobilised across different states.
Farm Unions are likely to continue demanding a constitutional guarantee on Minimum Support Prices.
3 Impact on Upcoming State Poll– At least the three of the poll bound states will definitely feel the impact of the repeal
Punjab-There will be new alliances in the state, which might impact the present Congress Govt, and that is of BJP and Captain Amarinder Singh’s party. Akali Dal has announced that they will go alon and not have ant national party as alliance partner.
Uttar Pradesh– The repeal may or may not lead a huge revival of BJP’s fortunes in West UP. But the Jat voters of UP are not traditionally against BJP, the repeal may contain the damage caused by farm laws.
Uttarakhand– The Udham Singh Nagar district of the state was an important hub of protests against farm laws. It is home to a large number of Sikh farmers. The BJP may face the damage in the district, which have 8 assembly seats in 70 members assembly. In short term, what is highly likely is an effort by the BJP to divert attention to issues that are more politically benefit- Hindutva and national security.
What Will Happen In Long Term
This U turn by PM Modi has added the element of uncertainty in Indian politics. It looks like it was decision taken considering the upcoming 3 states election. For the information Narendra Modi is not the first PM to roll back the laws under public pressure.
Past PMs Who Compromised Under Pressure From Protestors and Those Who Did not
Despite a brute majority, Rajiv Gandhi in the late 1980s compromised with a variety of protests – from the Assam agitation, the protests against the Shah Bano verdict, the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation and the 1988 Boat Club by Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Mahendra Singh Tikait to name a few.
Indira Gandhi, on the other hand, was said to have been least inclined to compromise with any form of collective bargaining.
The UPA government did not compromise on the OBC reservation issue but buckled during the Lokpal protests.
Modi himself has had a mixed track record as PM. Early into his first term, he gave in to the Opposition’s protests and withdrew the land acquisition ordinance. In 2018, it also conceded to protests against the Supreme Court judgment on the SC/STs Prevention of Atrocities Act and passed a law overturning the verdict.
But his government hasn’t compromised on the Citizenship Amendment Act except for small concessions for certain Northeastern states.
What Can Happen In Future
It happened in PM Modi’s first term, when he withdrew Land Acquisition ordinance. The period of 2017-18 was bad for economy when people were feeling the pinch due to GST.
This period saw the BJP facing a scare in Gujarat, falling short of a majority in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh and being defeated in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana.
The farmers’ protest had the potential of causing lasting damage on the BJP, especially if it had led to people suffering from other economic woes, price rise, job losses, falling incomes, loss of livelihood etc. Nothing short of a repeal could have prevented this, hence the govt’s decision.
So in that sense the Modi government has taken a tough call to contain any damage. If all goes according to the government’s plan, the worst political threat may be over and the BJP may be able to dominate elections using its superior resources and its pet themes of Hindutva and national security.
There is big scope for any mass movement or any Opposition party wants to take govt on economic issues like price rise and loss of jobs. The opportunity and space is there. But the big question is whether any leader from the opposition have the capacity to lead this type of movement outside and inside of Parliament.
The brand Modi, which had perception of him as iron willed leader, who does not give in even if it means sacrificing political interests, has taken a beating. But he had the guts to go on of national TV and announce the repeal of laws, he could have asked any minister to announce in press conference. It looks like Modi govt has taken a calculated risk taking into account the upcoming state elections.
With opposition parties in disarray , it seems this risk of Modi may do the damage control for BJP. if BJP would have gone with farmers’ protest still going on during elections. Then there would have been huge impact on their poll prospects.
Waiting, for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
22nd November 2021.v
Tejinder Singh Sethi
Narendra Modi’s decision to repeal the contentious farm laws is, at once, a strategic and political move and a belated admission of the government’s haste and high-handedness.
By repealing the laws, Mr Modi hopes to regain the confidence of the farmers in general and Sikhs in particular. It would also boost the BJP’s chances in the polls.