Last month, Assemble elections were held in Maharashtra and the result was declared on 23rd November 2024. Yesterday the suspense was over regarding who will become Chief Minister of Maharashtra, which will be Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP. It looked like the fate of outgoing CM Eknath Shinde of Shiv Sena was sealed on the day the results were declared when BJP secured 132 seats, Shiv Sena secured 57 seats, and NCP got 44 seats. When the original Shiv Sena broke in June 2022, BJP allowed EKnath Shinde to become CM, as they wanted to teach Uddhav Thackeray a lesson. After the results 2019 Assembly election, Uddhav Thackeray ditched BJP because he wanted CM’s post for original Shiv Sena, although BJP had secured almost double the seats secured by Shiv Sena. BJP did not agree and he took the support of Congress and original NCP and became CM. Then in 2023 NCP also broke, and maximum MLA sided with Ajit Pawar and they joined the BJP/Shiv Sena coalition.
Eknath Shinde tried his level best so that he would remain CM, but BJP’s top brass were not willing to concede CM’s post to him in the present scenario. In the end he had to bow down.
Present political scenario in Maharashtra is that the State is having following political parties’ presence in the State’s Legislative Assembly, and they are BJP (132) Shiv Sena (57), NCP (41), Congress (16), Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray)(20) and NCP (Sharad Pawar)(10). See the dilemma of the Opposition parties, as no party can qualify to hold a position of Leader of Opposition, which needs 10% seats of Assembly strength (29).
After the last month’s elections when polls were held for Jharkhand, Maharashtra Assemblies, by polls were also held for Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in various states.
After the Congress ’worst performance in Maharashtra and distant second after JMM in Jharkhand although they were in alliance. The Congress’ position, as a leader of INDI alliance has become shaky. Mamata Banerjee another partner of INDI alliance has consolidated her position in West Bengal, as her party TMC has won all the six seats where by polls were held. People have come to expect something big from the West Bengal government, as TMC’s schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar (Rs 1000 per month to poor women) has worked. Plus, students in West Bengal are getting scholarships irrespective of caste from school to university level.
Hemant Soren, CM of Jharkhand, and Mamata Banerjee are good partners of INDI alliance, but can not be the face of the alliance. The Gandhis of Congress have an all-India appeal.
Now coming back to Maharashtra.
Maharashtra politics has become very complex since 2019 Assembly elections. The split in Shiv Sena took place basically for power. Hindutva was the main agenda of the Shiv Sena and the Eknath Shinde group took the Hindutva ideology with it.
Uddhav Thackeray failed to convince his followers that his ideology was the same as his father’s. He diluted the Sena’s Hindutva ideology by aligning with Congress. After this election both Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar have the legitimacy for real Shiv Dena and NCP.
Sharad Pawar, now of NCP(SP) is towering political leader, but age is catching up and his communication with the people is not what it used to be. Impactful leaders from both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s group have shifted to Shind and Ajit Pawar groups.
Another factor is that Congress does not have a credible face in Maharashtra.
The survival of these three political parties in the State is a challenge now. The Congress might sustain, but Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Sena’s political future is shaky, because politics is ultimately about capturing power.
What could be the impact of Jharkhand and Maharashtra results on the national level.
Trend shows that people are becoming more conscious about choosing their representatives, and women are being given more importance through different policies all over India.
In the State elections, politics will revolve around local issues and how much local governments can convince their own people. National issues work in the General elections ,but the state has to have its own strategy and people vote as per their requirements and State’s demand.
Voter’s are sending message to the Central government that dominance of one party will not happen any more because people will opt for another alternative if you do not perform.
Perform or Perish, there is no other way. Three States went to poll after the General Elections, that is Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra, and in all these States incumbent government came back to power, BJP+ in Haryana and Maharashtra, and JMM+ in Jharkhand, this only means that these governments must have performed well to be re elected.
Waiting for your feedback on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
5th December 2024