Friends, after the terrorist attack in Pahalgam where 26 innocent Indian citizens were killed, the Indian government announced that the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan is suspended, and is kept in abeyance. India is considering a significant escalation in its use of water from the Indus River system, which could drastically reduce the water supply to Pakistan.
Now, What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus water Treaty (IWT), brokered by The World Bank in 1960, allocates the water of six rivers between India and Pakistan. India control the eastern rivers-Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi-while Pakistan has rights over the western rivers-Indus, Chenab and Jhelum. Under the treaty, India is allowed limited use of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower projects but mist not significantly affect the water flow to Pakistan.
The External Affair Minister (EAM) has made it very clear that treaty will remain ‘in abeyance” until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably stops cross-border terrorism. He also emphasized that India is willing to engage with Pakistan only on issues related to terrorism and the return of illegally occupied territories in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK).
Although India has announced that IWT is being kept in abeyance, but if India stops the water flow to Pakistan whether the same water can be diverted to the Indian, that is a million dollar question? Is India ready with pans to divert the waters from the westerly flowing rivers?
What is India Planning?
India is considering plans to dramatically increase the water it draws from major river that feeds Pakistani farms downstream, as part of retaliatory action for deadly attack on tourists, that India blames Pakistan.
The Indian government has suspended its participation in the IWT of 1960, which governs usage of Indus river system.
One of the key plan under discussion involves doubling 120 km the length of Ranbir Canal on the Chenab, which runs through India to Pakistan’s agricultural powerhouse of Punjab. The canal was built in19th century, long before the IWT. India is permitted to draw a limited amount water from Chenab for irrigation, but an expanded canal-which experts said could take years to construct-would allow it to divert 150 cubic meters of water per second, up from 40 cubic meters per second currently. Details of the government’s deliberations on expanding Ranvir canal have not previously been reported. The discussion started last month continued even after the ceasefire.
Additionally, India is exploring other irrigation and hydropower projects that could further reduce water availability downstream. There are proposals to potentially redirect water from Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers into rivers within northern Indian states, further limiting water flow into Pakistan. These project includes the construction of dams capable of storing large quantities of water-something India has not previously done on the western rivers under IWT’s restrictions.
Impact on Pakistan
Pakistan relies on the Indus water system for approximately 80% of its agriculture and much of its hydropower generation. Any substantial reduction in water flow could have severe consequences for Pakistan’s food security, economy, and energy supply. Pakistan has already reported a 90% drop in water levels at a critical receiving point following Indian maintenance work on Indus projects, providing a glimpse of the pressure in might face, if India proceeds with its plans.
In the end
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been regarded as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally, having survived multiple wars and ongoing tensions.
As per government sources, India has identified five possible storage projects, four of which are on tributaries of Chenab and Jhelum.
As per experts, any efforts by India to build dams, canals or other infrastructure that would withhold or divert significant amount of flow from the Indus system to India “would take years to realise”.
This is the realistic situation, presently it will be very difficult to divert large amount of water to other storage areas for lack of infrastructure, till then India would be able to temporarily to stop the water supply to Pakistan. Yes, looking at the present scenario, India should renegotiate the IWT to get more supply of water, and it has been learn that India is pushing for this since 2023.
Only time will tell, what will be the fate of IWT?
Waiting for your feedback on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
19th May 2025