J&K

So in the end BJP and PDP alliance in the state of J & K is over after BJP withdrew from the alliance yesterday. The Chief Minister of State Mehbooba Mufti handed over the resignation to the Governor ad said she does not to explore any other possibility of forming govt. Even Omar Abdullah of National Conference made the statement their party is also not willing to form the govt as the popular mandate was against their party in the last election. So today morning Governor submitted his report to Central Govt and the state went under Governor’s role.

As reported in the media, the main reasons for withdrawing the support by BJP are very complex but in the broader sense they could be:

1. The main problem was PDP is having presence in Kashmir territory only, while BJP is very strong in the region of Jammu. The feeling among BJP cadre was that Mehbooba is neglecting the region of Jammu and Ladakh.
2. PDP’s policy  was always soft towards terrorists and it got escalated after Burhan Vani’s killing. PDP also wanted softer approach towards stone pelters and militants due to massive resentment in the valley.
3. Mehbooba’s moves mollifying her supporters in the valley by raising the ante on Kathua gang rape and Army/Security forces’ operations, was not to the liking of BJP and its supporters.
4. BJP unwillingly supported Mehbooba’s demand of cease fire during Ramzan month, this gesture was not reciprocated by Pakistan backed militants.
5. The killing of journalist Shujaat Bhukhari served as catalyst for centre to take control.
6. Timing of the BJP withdrawing support is very calculative, as per constitution the state of J&K can be kept under Governor’s rule for 6 months, now this period will go up to end Dec 2018. . As per the law if the govt can not be formed within 6 months, the state can be put under President’s rule, which will have to be ratified by Parliament.So it looks like that the  Election Commission will prefer to hold both the poll   (State Assembly & Lok Sabha) simultaneously in  J &K. This will be 8th instances of Governor’s rule in the state starting from  Mar 1977.

Now what will be repercussion of Governor’s rule:

First thing will be  now all the major parties of J & K will have time to re group themselves before the next State and General Elections. Problem is the parties which are of Kashmiri origin like PDP and National Conference have no base now in Jammu and Ladakh region and BJP as a political party  is no major force in Kashmir but it is very strong in Jammu region. Less said about Congress is better, as they have totally lost its base in Jammu region and what ever base they had earlier in Kashmir region is also gone after their poor performance in last elections. So I do not know what major alliances  will emerge for next state and general elections. But with National Conference, PDP and Congress slowly losing their base in Kashmir god only knows what will happen next in J & K elections, but one thing is certain if BJP can retain their hold in Jammu region , then again they will become key factor in forming next state govt.

Second thing, which for sure is that now with Governor’s rule Army and all other security forces will have free hand in tackling terrorists, militants and answering Pakistani army’s firing across the Line of Control (LOC). Yesterday Home Minister Rajnath Singh chaired a high level review meeting for taking stock of security scenario in view of Governor’s rule, the meeting was also attended by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. The top most agenda of the meeting was , how to provide security during  upcoming Amarnath yatra.

The Congress party president Rahul Gandhi made a statement yesterday that   “The opportunistic alliance between BJP and PDP, set fire to J &K killing innocents including brave soldiers”. I think he should also answer that what  National Conference and Congress alliance over the years in J & K was doing. This alliance was responsible for the birth of militancy and terrorism in valley and  lakhs of Kashmiri Pandits’ exodus from the valley due to this militancy and anti Hindu sentiments.

Let us wait and watch for the future developments.

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