So it has become certain that Narendra Modi will become Prime Minister for the third time, and it the process he will become 2nd person who has been chosen to become Prime Minister for 3rd time continuously (ie 2014, 2019, and 2024 ), the first person to achieve this fear was Late Jawaharlal Nehru who became Prime Minister in 1952, 1957, and 1962. Whatever political permutation and combination were envisaged by Political pundits regarding whether JD U and TDP will switch sides and join the INDI alliance, have been laid to rest, as both these parties have given letters of their support to BJP. So as expected it will be MODI 3.0, but this time it will be really coalition government of NDA for BJP, as BJP does not have the majority of their own.
This election proves two things: that anti-incumbency is still a factor in Indian politics, which can humble even tall leaders like Narendra Modi and Naveen Patnaik. In Telengana, the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS), which had suddenly developed national aspirations last year, not only lost the state assembly few months back in 2023, but is nowhere in the Lok Sabha scene. Jagan Mohan Reddy of Andhra Pradesh, once thought to be undefeatable, has been handed down his worst defeat by TDP.
Now coming to Why BJP lost more than 60 seats in this election:
There is much jubilation in the Congress Camp, but the fact still remains that BJP is the single largest party in the country, and the individual strength of BJP is still more than the total strength of INDI alliance.
BJP’s loss of seats can be mainly attributed mainly to the states of UP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana.
The biggest setback was UP where they lost more than 30 seats, and political experts are of the opinion:
- The perception that gained ground that Modi-Shah duo wanted to replace Yogi Adityanath as CM of UP as he has been seen as a potential candidate for the top job in the future. This narrative gained ground after the late 2023 state elections, when BJP appointed relatively known faces s CMs of MP, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Haryana.
- BJP’s top brass’s decision to force their candidates despite opposition from locals and RSS cadre cost them heavily in 10-15 seats. There was discontent among Rajput community in western UP coupled with INDI alliance following strategy of giving more tickets to non-Yadav OBCs resulted in major losses to BJP in the state. The decision of fielding 47 out of 62 sitting MPs also resulted in anti-incumbency vote against the party.
- Right from ‘vote-jihad’ to ‘mangalsutra’, BJP’s campaign focused on rhetoric rather than developmental issues. What was more surprising that PM Modi himself was leading this campaign accusing the Congress of trying to redistribute property to ‘those with many children’. One would have expected a government which has been in power for 10 years to highlight their achievements instead of focusing on trivial divisive issues.
- There was NO Modi magic this times. Most of the seats witnessed a direct fight between BJP and INDI alliance as BSP was reduced to the sidelines. This was perhaps the first election in 15 years when local/caste factors came into play while BJP relied solely on ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ slogan.
In Maharashtra, it was BJP’s alliance with Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) that did not click. Here Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackarey got the sympathy votes which affected the prospect of NDA candidates, and.
In these two states, the loss to BJP was more than 50 seats. Similarly Haryana and Rajasthan also contributed further loss of 15-20 seats. Mainly it was Hindi belt which was once stronghold of BJP, was betrayed this time.
There was one more factor which affected BJP, which was “INDI alliance campaign of if BJP wins this time they will change the constitution, which will affect the minorities”. This was also one of factor that swayed minority votes towards INDI alliance. Second propaganda by INDI alliance was that of ‘ if BJP comes back to power they will end reservations.
Now what has happened has happened, BJP in future will have to really run a coalition government and listen to their main allies. The plus point from economy’s view point is that none of the BJP’s major allies , like TDP of JD U or Shiv Sena (Shinde) are anti-growth or overly-welfarist. So there is no need for any major change in policy stance, though Andhra and Bihar will ask for more central resources.
The big test for BJP will come in the later part of this year when states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will go assembly elections, and these are the states where BJP and allies have suffered reverses. It is hoped that the Modi government will strengthen its coalition once more, hopefully creating a good atmosphere for coalition governance. One thing more which BJP has to straighten out is, that in this election there was consolidation of minority votes against BJP, and split in its coalition of Hindu castes.
In the end on the lighter note, why this time no complaint against the working of EVMs because parties of INDI alliance got good amount of seats, and if NDA had crossed 350 seat marks then they would have said that EVMs were tempered/manipulated.
I hope with INDI alliance having more than 230 seats, the sessions of Lok Sabha will not be disturbed/disrupted on any filmsy reasons, and there will be fruitful discussions on each and every topic.
Waiting for your feedback on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
6th June 2024