So yesterday suspense got over, and the results for the Lok Sabha elections were declared state- and constituency-wise. The results shocked all the poll pundits, as all the Exit Polls were proven wrong. The pollsters predicting landslide victory for NDA (led by BJP) got shock of their life, as NDA could reach only the tally of 291 seats, and the opposition alliance INDIA led by Congress got 234 seats. This was totally unexpected for many people. The Share Market which rose by 3000 points in a single after the exit polls, yesterday crashed by more than 4000 points.
In 2014 and 2019 general elections, BJP of their own got majority with 282 seats and 303 seats respectively, but this time they have fallen short by 32 seats. The problem for BJP is that, JDU and TDP combined have 28 seats, and Congress has openly said that they are going to try to bring these two parties in their alliance. There are too many permutations and combinations floating in the market, but the fact is without these parties BJP will be having 263 seats, just 9 shorts of majority. BJP can support of YSR Congress(in Andhra they are opposing TDP) who is having 4 seats, there are 8 rebels candidate-they could get support from some of them, Akali Dal (1 seat) and 1 independent candidate from Jammu have pledges support to BJP, so it is certain BJP will form coalition government under the leadership of Narendra Modi. This scenario may not happen as both JDU and TDP have categorrily said they are with NDA. JDU and TDP must have realized if they leave NDA it will be the most stupid decision of their life time, as they will be out of the government.
Both the alliance were proven wrong after the results, NDA that raised the slogan of “ Abki Baar 400 Paar” (This time we will win more than 400 seats), and Congress claim of INDI alliance will win 295 seats.
So it is all certain that Narendra Modi will rule for next 5 years.
Along with Lok Sabha elections polls were also held for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh Assemblies, and in both the states ruling parties were routed. In Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik (BJD) lost the assembly elections to BJP and in Andhra Jagan Reddy (YSR Congress) lost to TDP. It is a big credit to BJP that they could defeat BJD who were ruling the state for last 20 years, additionally BJD drew blank in Lok Sabha election also. So BJP has got two more states in their kitty, as TDP is now part of NDA.
Now some interesting details of this election:
1 Highest Victory Margin– achieved by Shankar Lalwani of BJP in Indore. He won by 11,75,092 votes.
2 Lowest victory Margin– achieved by Ravindra Waikar of Shiv Sena (Shinde), when he defeated Amol Kirtikar of Shiv Sena (Uddhav) by just 48 votes.
3 In Indore constituency that achieved highest victory margin, also achieved the distinction of registering highest number of NOTA (None of the above) votes of 2,18,674.
4 Youngest and Oldest Winners– Congress’s Sanjana Jatav, and S{P’s Pushpendra Saroj became the youngest candidates to win at 25 years while TR Baalu of DMK becomes the oldest at 82 years.
5 In Metro cities– there was direct fight between NDA and INDIA, In Delhi it was 7-0, in Mumbai 6-1, Bengaluru 4-0, Kolkata 0-4, Chennai 0-3 and Hyderabad 3-1(AIMIM).
6 Shocker of this election- BJP losing Ayodhya seat, that too after the inauguration of Ram Temple in January 2024.
Winners
1 Rahul Gandhi and Mallikaarjun Khadge of Congress- Both of them formed good coordination with allies. Although their campaign speeches were pure comedy and non sense and half the time they were not knowing what they are talking about, but with the sports of their allies Congress improved its tally from 53 to 99.
2 Akhilesh Yadav of Samajwadi Party- Finally ends his losing streak which started in 2017. SP has become 3rd largest party in the Lok Sabha after BJP and Congress with 37 seats. The fact that his success has come with possible support of non-yadavs OBCs and Dalit means, he has arrived on the national scene.
3 Chabdrababu Naidu of TDP- He was consigned to history after he left NDA in 2019, when he was defeated by Jagan Mohan Reddy. With BJP falling short of majority, he is going to be key player. With TDP winning assembly election in a big way, it is all but certain he will become CM of Andhra and his party will play vital role at centre.
4 Nitish Kumar of JD U- He was almost written off by political pundits when he rejoined NDA few months back. He is going to be vital for BJP at the centre, and he is going to demand his pound of flesh for Bihar state from the centre.
5 Mamata Banerjee of TMC- Contrary to all exit polls predictions, she actually raised her Lok Sabha tally from 22 to 29. A weaker BJP at the centre means the less involvement of central agencies in the affairs of West Bengal.
6 MK Stalin of DMK- He led DMK and its allies to a clean sweep in Tamil Nadu. Another plus for him is the decline of AIADMK.
7 Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT)- He has proved himself after the split in the party. Outside Mumbai region he could win has proven his credentials.
On the losers list there are leaders like Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSR Congrees)- he lost in both Lok Sabha and assembly elections in Andhra; Naveen Patnaik of BJD- he also lost both Lok Sabha and assemble election in Odisha; Arvind Kejriwal of APP- his party could just win 3 seats from Punjab, and lost all the seats in Delhi in alliance with Congress; Mayawati of BSP drew blank in UP; and Yogi Adityanath of BJP- it seems Yogi’s magic is on wane, and in future he is going to face formidable challenge from Akhileah Yadav led SP in future.
In my future blog, I will write on why BJP and Modi’s magic failed?
Waiting for your feedback on this blog.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
5th June 2024