After the results of recent assembly elections in the country, one thing has become quite evident the political scenario for the next general elections in 2024 is getting clearer and clearer. Looking back on what happened during the campaigning of this election, the 2024 general election campaign is going to be much more fierce between the two major alliances ie the INDI alliance and NDA. There are a few political parties like BRS and BSP who are not aligned with any of these alliances and are going to find it difficult to survive independently.
Going by what has been happening during the last few years, some STRAY THOUGHTS have come into my mind, which I want to share with you all:
1 What is happening in the Congress Party- it seems that the party has no top leader who has control over the party leaders and cadre. For namesake, Mallikaarjun Khadge is supposed to be the party President, but does anyone listen to him? Presently, it looks like Sonia Gandhi is not actively taking part in party affairs on a day-to-day basis, and it is left to Rahul and Priyanka to control the congressmen, and what to talk of their capability.
2 Congress winning Telengana is like when AAP won the assembly elections in Punjab state. At that time Punjab was ruled by Congress and there was too much discontent among the public with their government. Here BJP was not in a good position as their alliance with Akali Dal was broken because of the new bill on Farm Laws. So AAP took advantage of this situation, promised many freebies to the people of Punjab, and on that basis won the election. A similar thing happened in Telangana, people were fed with the rule of BRS, and the BJP here did not have a strong presence although they tried very hard to show their presence in the state, but they fell short. So Congress got the chance, as there was no other alternative for the people of Telangana except to vote for Congress.
3 In Madhya Pradesh (MP), during this state elections it was high headedness of the Congress Party’s Kamalnath (who was projected as CM) which did damage to the prospects of the Congress Party, as he did not consult/listen to other leaders. The initial forecasts and even exit polls showed a close fight between Congress and BJP, but the result went totally in favour of the BJP.
4 In Rajasthan, during this state elections it was infighting between two groups led by Ashok Gehlot (then CM) and Sachin Pilot which did the damage to the Congress party. Even here, Ashok Gehlot did not listen to the recommendations of the Central leadership of the party and gave the tickets to his loyalists.
5 Although all the forecasts and exit polls went in favor of the Congress in Chhatisgarh, it was Mahadev corruption scam that went against the ruling party Congress’s CM Baghel, and here also it was overconfidence of CM which did the Congress.
6 Congress projected their CM candidate in all states where they contested, whereas BJP did not project anyone as CM candidate and they fought elections in all the states under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi. This way BJP could avoid poll infighting among the party’s state leadership and all the candidates who had aspirations of becoming CM. This helped the BJP as all the state leaders fully-heartedly worked for the success of the BJP party.
7 But now after the elections, it is a tough task for the BJP’s central leadership to choose the CM in the states of MP, Chhatisgarh, and Rajasthan. Even after 4 days of election results, there is still no announcement for the names of CM in these three states.
8 One thing all the political parties should realize is that calling names, abusing, and insulting your opponents is not going to give you an advantage in terms of votes, and sometimes this move can backfire. The classic example is in every election Congress leader Rahul Gandhi calls Narendra Modi by different names like Panauti, Chowkidar Chor Hai, Maut Ka Saudagar, etc, but nothing has affected the reputation of Narendra Modi.
9 What happened to leaders like Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati, and Arvind Kejriwal in these elections? Although all these leaders had a claim of big leaders of the Hindi heartland, all of them were sidelined. It was almost a direct fight between Congress and the BJP. Arvind Kejriwal, (who thinks he is as big a leader as PM Narendra Modi) what was the fate of his party AAP in these elections- Total candidates fielded-215, Win -0, Lost deposit- 202. The same was the fate of Mayawati of BSP and Akhilesh Yadav of SP.
10 Now it is to be seen what is going to be the strategy of other leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, and MK Stalin of INDI alliance, as these leaders have a big say in their respective states. The impact of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, and Arvind Kejriwal have proven to be ineffective in these state elections.
Waiting for your views on this blog.
Anil Malik
7th December2023