Last week, the Women’s Reservation Bill linked with Delimitation was defeated in Lok Sabha, and Opposition parties are deluding themselves that they have defeated the BJP.
Let us look at some of the facts:
- Articles 81 and 82 of the Indian Constitution mandate delimitation after the census.
- Delimitation is, therefore is a constitutional clock that has been ticking away for decades. It is not some sudden manoeuvre.
- However, delimitation was frozen in 1976 under Indira Gandhi (when she had imposed the Emergency) for the next 25 years, i.e. till the year 2001.
- Under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2001, the freeze was extended for the next 25 years i.e. till 2026.
- So all political parties have known for the last few years that the year 2026 is fixed for the delimitation exercise.
- This is not about ‘North Indians’ or any particular party’s whim (as per the narrative spread by the opposition parties)
It is a baked-in constitutional process that any party in power is obligated to execute.
- The Women’s Reservation Bill was passed in 2023, but to implement it, delimitation via Article 334A is compulsory.
- So delimitation is now practically unavoidable.
- The process does not need 2/3rd majority
- The government floated a new Constitutional Amendment Bill to expand Lok Sabha seats from 543 to roughly 850 seats.
- The Women’s Reservation Bill will then be done on those 850 seats.
- The government proposed that the current seats of each State be increased by 50%.
- This was mainly done to protect the Southern States.
- The logic offered by the Central government was simple- by increasing the total volume of seats, the numbers could be rebalanced without stripping the Southern States of their existing influence.
- 2/3r majority was required for this amendment.
- But the opposition parties, mainly DMK, opposed this, and the other opposition parties went with DMK.
- So the Bill could not be passed.
- As the opposition rejected the Central government’s offer of a flat 50% increase formula, now delimitation will be done as per the Indian Constitutional guidelines. This will mean pure population-based redistribution of seats.
- Southern States have shot themselves in the foot. If delimitation is done purely based on population, they will stand to lose seats, and North will stand to gain.
- Tamil Nadu will stand to lose the most. But DMK is not even looking that far ahead. They are just focusing on the State elections, which are around the corner.
- They felt that if the amendment was passed, the BJP would take the credit and gain women’s votes in the upcoming elections.
- The same can be said about West Bengal and TMC.
Now the Bottom Line?
The BJP essentially outmanoeuvred the opposition here.
They can now truthfully claim, “We tried to protect the South with an Expansion Bill, but the opposition blocked it”.
Meanwhile, both delimitation and the Women’s Reservation Bill will move forward as planned, and the Southern States will likely find themselves with a diminished voice in Delhi.(as after the census, the percentage of population increase will be more in other States than Southern States, and these States will get more chunks of Lok Sabha Seats.) You might say that this was a tactical error by DMK and other INDI alliance member parties. They just thought of defeating the BJP on the floor of the House, and overlooked the larger implications in the long run.
Anil Malik
Mumbai, India
21st April 2025