Thursday Thoughts

Presently Mumbai is reeling under the unprecedented heat wave, everyone says it is due to global warming. Now what is Global Warming- The term Global warming and climate change are often used interchangeably. NASA defines Global Warming as ” the increase in Earth’s average surface temp due to rising levels of greenhouse gases” and climate change as  ” a long term change in the Earth’s climate, or of a region on Earth.” As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ” It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid 20th century.” The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region. Anticipated effects include rising sea levels, changing precipitation and expansion of deserts.Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall, ocean acidification and species extinctions due to shifting temp regions.

One climate study concluded that if greenhouse gasses were stablised at 2000 level then av temp rise will be o.5 deg c and if stabilised at 2005 level then temp rise will be 1 deg c. It has been reported that 16 of the 17 warmest years have been recorded after 2000.

Now the UN body on Global Warming has asked the countries to pledge that by 2050 the av temp rise to be limited to 1.5 deg c, after seeing the impact of o.5 deg c temp rise, which has adversely impacted  global population and overall eco system through intense heatwaves, sea level rise, melting of arctic ice, erratic rain fall, reduction of farm yield and vanishing of living species. In fact limiting warming to 1.5 deg c rather than 2 deg c could result in  420 million fewer people being exposed to severe heat waves. It is possible to meet the new target, provided nations take rapid and far reaching actions over next 10/20 years in land use, energy, industry, transport to cut emission and reach net zero by 2050.

The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) has found that  Maharashtra will get significantly wetter and warmer in the coming years, with deeper implications for crop, water resources and diseases. For Mumbai TERI had projected a 1 to 1.4 deg c increase in minimum temp and 10 to 14 % increase in extreme rainfall by 2030. The rainfall increase in Mumbai is not as high as been predicted for some other districts of Maharashtra, but since Mumbai region already experiences heavy rainfall, even a small increase could make a huge difference. Mumbai’s location below high tide level and only 10-15 meters above sea level makes it more vulnerable. High tides could contribute to making an excess rainfall event a disastrous one, as it did on 26th July 2005, and a rising sea level can aggravate the danger.

This TERI analysis has predicted that the annual mean temp in state will rise by 1 deg c by 2030, with western part of Vidharbha, northern Maharashtra- Nasik, Dhule, Nandurbar among others- and Marathwada seeing the biggest increase in the region of 1.4 to 1.6 deg c compared to 1-1.2 deg c in Pune and Konkan region. The number of extremely low rainfall days is projected to rise sharply in south central Maharashtra- parts of Pune and Marathwada.

Some of the corrective measures which are suggested by TERI are- Solar Water Pumps for farmers in place of Diesel and thermal power based pumps, creation of artificial ponds to strengthen water conservation, rooftop solar panels and use of Electrical vehicles. The state has started implementing since a year as part of the action plan to adapt climate change.

Other corrective measures suggested by TERI are

• Give local forecasts and crop specific advisory to farmers, promote diverse and hardy plant varieties, provide crop insurance and improve cold storage chains.
• Preserve farm around cities as urban food corridors.
• Increase disease surveillance and give early warnings of excess heat and rain.
• Restore degrades open forests, which are near Pune, Washim and Ankola.
• Enhance tree cover in cities.
• Develop diversified livelihood options, especially for fishery dominated districts.
• In cities promote green roofs and green belts to lower temperatures and prompte paving materials that allow water to infiltrate and recharge groundwater.
• Conservation, re naturalisation of water bodies.
• Mandate Water Recycling and Rain Water Harvesting.

In the last century whole world was after industrialisation, which happened at very fast pace, and this inadvertently affected  the global warming.Unless all the concern take the serious view on this matter, then only  as a country we can fight with Global warming. The serious implications of the same will be definitely felt by future generations.

So friends, what you say in this matter.

Please do write your views/comments/feed backs.

Anil Malik

Mumbai, India

11th Oct, 2018