General Elections 2019

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2019

Election commission has announced the dates for the next general elections and they are happening in Apr-May 2019. The dates are Apr 11, Apr 18, Apr 23, Apr 29, May 6, May 12 & May 19. Counting will be held on May 23 and results will be expected on same day.

According to experts from the media, following factors will hold the key to elections and they are : National Security/Terror, Modi, Stability & Strong Leadership vs Diversity & Shared Leadership, Social Media, Welfare Schemes, Women, Jobs, Inflation, Caste, Rural Unrest, Polarisation, Corruption & Young Voter.

More than anything else opposition is going to harp on Working Style of  Modi & Polarisation. Where as ruling party BJP’s emphasis will be on  Stability & Strong Leadership vs Diversity, Shared Leadership and Dynastic Polity and National Security/Terror.

On other factors: Inflation- it is under check and  govt has succeeded in taming the price rise. Caste factor- Opposition is banking on this factor and the position of the govt is – every citizen is equal as per constitution, but silently they know it always plays  the role during elections. Corruption- generally there is no major scam/corruption issue has come out, and it is not clear whether people will believe Rahul Gandhi’s claim over corruption in Rafale deal. Welfare schemes- Govt is on strong footing, as with social schemes being linked with Aadhar  card/bank account, the welfare’s scheme benefit is reaching poor directly and they are happy. Women- in rural are women are happy with schemes like building toilets, providing LPG connections, capital punishments for minors. Muslim women are happy with triple talaq  law/ordinance. Govt will be on back foot as far as Polarisation and  Gau Raksha   is concern. Social media- post Balalkot, it appears that that govt has a major edge over the opposition on the social media reach. On the jobs issue- although many jobs have been created in Infra structure area, IT area, but thjere are no concrete data available either with govt or opposition. Yes if some one talks about  jobs in govt and public sector, then there are not much done in this area.

Now let us see how many alliances between major national and regional parties  are there which are going to fight general elections;

A  NDA  :  main constituents of the NDA are

BJP which is the main national party, and is supported by  JD(U) in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, LJP in Bihar, MK in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK in Tamilnadu, Akali Dal in Punjab and  Apna Dal in UP.

B UPA :  main constituents of UPA are

Congress which is the main national party, and is supported by  DMK in Tamil Nadu, MDMK in Tamilnadu, National conference in J & K, RJD in Bihar, JD(S) in Karnataka, NCP in Maharashtra.

C Federal Front (Non Aligned but Won’t Back BJP): it consist of regional parties like

CPM in Bengal, PDP in  J & K, AAP in Delhi & Punjab, BSP in UP, SP in UP  and RLD in UP.

D Federal Front ( Non Aligned, Can Go Either Way) : it consists of regional parties like

TRS in Telengana, BJD in Odisha, YSR Cong in Andhra Pradesh, INLD in Haryana, TMC in West Bengal, AGP in Assam and TDP in  Andhra Pradesh.

This being the present scenario- the problem is that there are only 2 national parties and Congress is at back foot as no major regional parties are willing to align with them. Presently after Congress the other party who are aligned with Congress having presence in out going Lok Sabha are  NCP (6 members) RJD (4 members) and JD S (2 members).  With Congress, UPA has 56 members in out going Lok Sabha.

The regional parties which are aligned with BJP are having 69 members in out going Lok Sabha, with BJP, NDA is about 340+ members in out going Lok sabha.

The strength of both Federal Front in out going Lok Sabha is 110 member.

Balance are unattached or Independent members.

One interesting observations, Mumbai polling is on 29^th Apr, which is Monday, that means long weekend for Mumbaikars. I have observed for last so many elections, the polling day in Mumbai is such that, it will always ends up in long weekend. What does it mean, that Election Commission, Govt and ruling political parties are indicating to all  Mumbaikars, those who can afford should go on holiday on this long week end , we do not care for your votes. Many citizens take advantage of this and just go on holiday.

In the coming blogs, I will try to analyse further the prospect of each group.

Awaiting your views/feed backs/comments.

Anil Malik

11^th Mar 2019