Tuesday News

There is nothing much happening in Political circle in the country except who is going to be the next President of Congress Party and  will JD(S)  and Congress govt in Karnataka survive in the wake of present crisis.

For the Congress members it will be very difficult to choose someone out side the Gandhi family as Party President, because the present leadership of the Congress party has grown under Gandhi family for them to look beyond Gandhi family will be very tough task because any  leader as President may not be accepted by other leaders and there are too many factions in the Congress and Gandhi family is binding factor. Whom so ever they choose, the fact remains that Sonia Gandhi  will be running the party through remote control, similar to her running of UPA govt. The other major factor is the money part, which is under control of Gandhi family. My question to Congress party, why can’t they have elections for the post of President and whoever gets more votes becomes President, and then they can declare openly that they are democratic party as they have chosen their President democratically. But will they do it this way and I have serious doubt. Let us wait and watch.

Now let us come to Karnataka crisis- The govt in Karnataka is on the verge of falling with several MLAs of the Congress and Janata Dal (S) parties have submitted their resignations to the speaker of the Assembly. All the Congress Ministers have resigned from the state cabinet. The opposition party BJP has demanded the resignation of the CM saying that he has lost the majority. Even one independent MLA who was supporting the Govt has resigned as Minister and offered to support the BJP. All these developments have pushed the Congress JD(S) govt to crisis.  The assembly has 225 members including one nominated member, so halfway mark is 213 .

Before the recent spate of resignations, the Congress had 78 MLAs, JD(S) had 37 and BJP 105. The Congress-JD(S) govt also had the support of nominated member and MLA each from BSP, KPJP and one independent. So govt had support of 119 MLAs. This was before the resignations. Now  the position  is  with resignations of 13 MLAs and one MLA has switched side, the effective strength of govt is now 104. Now if the resignations of 13 MLAs are accepted then the effective half way comes to 106. The BJP which has 105 MLAs will now have backing of one independent MLA thus raising the total to 106. Now let us look at various scenario which can happen

Scenario 1: Congress and JD(S) remain in power with different looking govt. The 13 rebel MLAs would be asked to take back their resignations and would be offered Ministerial posts. This can happen as all the Congress Ministers have resigned, and there are also rumours that JD(S) Ministers will also resign. What happens to CM HD Kumarswamy- he may continue or he may quit to make way for CM from Congress party.

Scenario 2: BJP comes to Power- BJP is currently having the support of 106 MLAs, ie just the half way mark. If the resignations of 13 MLAs are accepted then Governor will have no choice but to invite the largest party to form the govt.

Scenario 3: Governor seeing how thin the BJP will have majority may recommend for fresh election, stating that he fear the new govt under BJP also will not last long. In that case either Kumarswamy remains as caretaker CM of State goes under Governor’s rule till fresh elections are held.

Scenario 4: Congress withdraws support to Kumarswamy govt. In this case 13 MLAs remain in Karnataka assembly, and that means it is hung assembly with BJP being the largest party having 105 MLAs. What happens next is the situation where again Governor comes into picture. He  will recommend for dissolving the assembly and going for fresh elections, either with caretaker CM or State is put under Governor’s rule.

So how the drama end, is to be seen.

Awaiting your views/comments/feedbacks.

Anil Malik

Mumbai, India

9th July 2019